Table 3. 2020 mortality rates by risk factor change scenario.

Scenarios	CHD mortality rate in 2020 (per 100,000) a						Relative change (%) b
	England c	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5	England c	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5
All
Baseline2007	147.4	108.9	125.1	141.8	169.1	214.0	−	−	−	−	−	−
Worst case	171.5	124.7	144.4	165.8	197.0	256.2	16.9	15.2	15.8	17.2	17.2	20.7
Current trends	113.0	83.3	93.9	110.2	128.9	162.2	-23.8	-23.6	-26.2	-22.7	-23.9	-24.5
Intermediate	110.5	83.3	94.7	106.2	124.7	153.6	-25.1	-23.5	-24.4	-25.1	-26.4	-28.4
Optimal	82.9	63.6	71.5	79.5	91.7	110.0	-43.9	-41.7	-43.0	-44.1	-45.9	-48.8
Men
Baseline2007	200.3	148.1	169.5	192.6	230.2	292.6	−	−	−	−	−	−
Worst case	230.9	167.6	194.4	224.4	265.2	344.9	15.2	13.2	14.7	16.5	15.2	17.9
Current trends	155.1	113.5	131.0	151.3	175.9	223.1	-22.6	-23.3	-22.7	-21.4	-23.6	-23.7
Intermediate	150.4	113.5	128.5	144.6	170.1	210.8	-24.9	-23.3	-24.2	-24.9	-26.1	-28.0
Optimal	113.1	86.9	97.3	108.5	125.5	151.5	-43.5	-41.3	-42.6	-43.6	-45.5	-48.2
Women
Baseline2007	94.6	69.7	80.8	91.0	108.0	135.5	−	−	−	−	−	−
Worst case	112.2	81.7	94.4	107.3	128.8	167.4	18.6	17.3	16.9	17.9	19.3	23.6
Current trends	71.0	53.1	56.8	69.1	82.0	101.2	-24.9	-23.8	-29.7	-24.0	-24.1	-25.3
Intermediate	70.6	53.2	60.9	67.9	79.2	96.4	-25.4	-23.7	-24.6	-25.4	-26.7	-28.8
Optimal	52.6	40.3	45.7	50.5	57.9	68.4	-44.4	-42.1	-43.4	-44.5	-46.4	-49.5

^a Age-standardised.

^b Positive values represent increasing mortality rates; negative values show declines.

^c Expected deaths and DPPs summed over IMD quintiles.