Table 2.
Expected probabilities of surgical adaptation and stroke
| Subgroup | Manual palpation strategy | Modified TEE strategy | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |
Gender |
Age |
% atherosclerosis |
EuroSCORE predictedmortality risk |
Chance ofminor adaptation |
Chance ofmajor adaptation |
Risk of stroke |
Life-years after surgery |
Chance of minor adaptation |
Chance of majoradaptation |
Risk of stroke |
Life-yearsafter surgery |
||
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-fatal |
fatal |
|
|
|
non-fatal |
fatal |
|
| 1 |
Men |
55 yr |
10% |
1.04% |
3.03% |
0.08% |
1.01% |
0.24% |
23.06 |
9.43% |
0.26% |
0.84% |
0.23% |
`23.10 |
| 2 |
Men |
55 yr |
15% |
1.08% |
4.54% |
0.13% |
1.04% |
0.24% |
23.05 |
14.14% |
0.39% |
0.86% |
0.23% |
23.10 |
| 3 |
Women |
55 yr |
10% |
1.41% |
3.04% |
0.08% |
1.36% |
0.32% |
26.09 |
9.43% |
0.26% |
1.14% |
0.31% |
26.16 |
| 4 |
Women |
55 yr |
15% |
1.46% |
4.54% |
0.13% |
1.40% |
0.33% |
26.08 |
14.14% |
0.39% |
1.16% |
0.31% |
26.15 |
|
5 |
Men |
65 yr |
20% |
1.61% |
6.07% |
0.17% |
1.53% |
0.36% |
15.17 |
18.84% |
0.52% |
1.25% |
0.33% |
15.22 |
| 6 |
Men |
65 yr |
30% |
1.71% |
9.10% |
0.25% |
1.61% |
0.38% |
15.15 |
28.29% |
0.78% |
1.29% |
0.33% |
15.20 |
|
7 |
Women |
65 yr |
20% |
2.14% |
6.06% |
0.17% |
2.05% |
0.48% |
17.49 |
18.84% |
0.52% |
1.67% |
0.44% |
17.56 |
| 8 |
Women |
65 yr |
30% |
2.28% |
9.10% |
0.25% |
2.15% |
0.50% |
17.44 |
28.27% |
0.78% |
1.71% |
0.44% |
17.53 |
| 9 |
Men |
75 yr |
40% |
3.18% |
12.15% |
0.34% |
2.94% |
0.69% |
8.73 |
37.72% |
1.04% |
2.31% |
0.59% |
8.80 |
| 10 |
Men |
75 yr |
50% |
3.36% |
15.13% |
0.42% |
3.10% |
0.72% |
8.70 |
47.13% |
1.31% |
2.39% |
0.60% |
8.77 |
| 11 |
Women |
75 yr |
40% |
4.13% |
12.13% |
0.34% |
3.83% |
0.90% |
10.44 |
37.70% |
1.04% |
3.02% |
0.77% |
10.55 |
| 12 | Women | 75 yr | 50% | 4.34% | 15.21% | 0.42% | 4.02% | 0.94% | 10.40 | 47.11% | 1.31% | 3.09% | 0.78% | 10.53 |
The probabilities and life-years observed from the model. For both strategies the observed chance of adaptation of the surgical procedure is shown, the observed risk of stroke and the expected number of life-years following surgery. In addition, the EuroSCORE predicted mortality risk is given for each subgroup.