Table 3.

Posterior estimates of model parameters

	Parameter	Mean	S.d.	MC error	2.5%	Median	97.5%	RR(%)
Time-varying Intercepts By years	1995	-0.289	0.155	0.0026	-0.592	-0.290	0.015	74.8
	1996	-0.339	0.159	0.0025	-0.662	-0.338	-0.038	71.3
	1997	-0.049	0.167	0.0033	-0.380	-0.048	0.280	95.3
	1998	-0.294	0.169	0.0031	-0.631	-0.291	0.032	74.8
	1999	-0.641	0.194	0.0035	-1.027	-0.641	-0.261	52.7
	2000	-0.330	0.157	0.0024	-0.633	-0.332	-0.018	71.7
	2001	-0.270	0.154	0.0024	-0.576	-0.269	0.032	76.4
	2002	-0.037	0.156	0.0033	-0.346	-0.036	0.268	96.5
	2003	0.227	0.140	0.0028	-0.055	0.229	0.500	125.7
	2004	0.289	0.133	0.0027	0.029	0.290	0.549	133.6
	2005	0.489	0.127	0.0029	0.237	0.490	0.737	163.2
Effect of misalignment	increase	0.060	0.218	0.0041	-0.370	0.061	0.488	106.3
	decrease	-0.406	0.222	0.0046	-0.850	-0.406	0.029	66.6
	new	-0.202	0.176	0.0036	-0.546	-0.203	0.144	81.6
	removal	0.183	0.311	0.0052	-0.432	0.182	0.797	120.0
Precision	Spatial	148.0	359.8	16.55	1.640	9.146	1092.0	----
	Noise	34.93	161.6	7.38	4.031	7.584	413.1	----