Figure 4.

Model parameters are optimized for high shedding. Results from 200, 10-year model simulations, each with randomly selected parameter values. Simulations with best fit to all features of shedding episode features (rate, duration, early expansion and late decay kinetics, peak viral production and, expansion and decay slopes) lead to lowest least squares values (y-axis) and also most closely approximate the population levels shedding rate of 18% (red line); only 40 of 200 parameter sets lead to shedding rate>18%, implying that viral and immunologic parameters are relatively well calibrated to allow maximal shedding. Black line is a Lowess smoothed curve.