Table 2.

Posterior Mean Values for the Causal Rate of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease (PID) in Chlamydia trachomatis (CT)-infected Women and the Probability That an Incident Case of CT Will Cause PID^a

First Author, Year (Reference No.)	Causal Rate of PID in CT-Infected Women, δ		Probability That CT Will Cause PID
	Posterior Mean	95% CrI	Posterior Mean	95% CrI
Oakeshott, 2010 (11) (POPI Trial)	0.15	0.02, 0.31	0.12	0.02, 0.24
Scholes, 1996 (13)	0.26	0.03, 0.55	0.20	0.03, 0.34
Østergaard, 2000 (12)	1.03	0.13, 2.49	0.43	0.11, 0.65
Rees, 1980 (10)	0.76	0.07, 1.78	0.37	0.06, 0.59

Abbreviations: CrI, credible interval; CT, Chlamydia trachomatis; PID, pelvic inflammatory disease; POPI, Prevention of Pelvic Infection.

^a Estimated using the Markov model shown in Figure 1.