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. 2013 Sep 6;10(86):20130414. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0414

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© 2013 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 4. — Estimated bi-weekly transmission parameters from the best-fitting exponential model of cross-protection. Temperature and rainfall data provide a comparison with the observed seasonal trends. (a) Displays mean-centred estimated bi-weekly transmission parameters. The transmission across all serotypes (from model E_c) is shown in the solid black line with the grey shaded area representing the 95% CI. Serotype-specific transmission parameters (from model E_d) are shown in the thinner coloured lines. Transmission parameters from the corresponding fixed duration models showed similar patterns. (b) Median monthly precipitation in millimetre, at one location in Bangkok between 1981 and 2002. (c) Median monthly temperature in Bangkok between 1983 and 1996. The shaded areas in (b,c) Represent the 10th and 90th percentiles of the observed monthly data. (d) Plots the bi-weekly transmission parameters against the average bi-weekly precipitation and a ‘line of best fit’ is shown. (e) Plots the bi-weekly transmission parameters against the average bi-weekly temperature and a ‘line of best fit’ is shown. For (d,e), Cubic splines were used to interpolate the monthly data in (b,c) into bi-weekly data. In (d,e), the points are the graph are indicated by the corresponding bi-week (numbered 1–26). (Online version in colour.)