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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Dec 4.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Intern Med. 2013 Jun 4;158(11):831–838. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-158-11-201306040-00008

Table 2.

A selection of studies of overdiagnosis due to breast cancer screening, labeled according to the measure of overdiagnosis, the study design and context, and the estimation approach used. Studies were selected to reflect a range of choices of overdiagnosis measures, contexts and methods and to include recent, high-profile publications

Author Years of study In situ cases included ? Estimate Measure Approach Context
Morrell 2010 (10) 1999– 2001 No 30–42% Excess cases/cases expected without screening Excess incidence New South Wales, Australia
Ages 50–69
Biennial screening
Population study
Gotzsche, 2011 (3) Multiple Yes 30% Excess cases/cases expected without screening Excess incidence* 7 clinical trials of mammography
Kalager, 2012 (5) 1996– 2005 No 15–25% Excess cases/cases expected without screening Excess incidence* Norway
Ages 50–69
Biennial screening
Population study
Bleyer, 2012 (4) 1976– 2008 Yes 31% Excess cases/detected cases Excess incidence* US SEER9
Ages 40+
Population study
Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening (11) Multiple Yes 11%
3
Excess cases/cases expected without screening
Excess cases/lives saved
Excess incidence UK
Ages 50–70
3 clinical trials of mammography
Screened every 3 years
Paci, 2006 (9) 1986– 2001 Yes
No
4.6%
3.2%
Cases overdiagnosed/cases expected without screening Lead-time Five areas of Italy
Ages 50–74
Biennial screening
Population study
Olsen, 2006 (19) 1991– 1995 No 4.8% Cases overdiagnosed/detected cases Lead-time Copenhagen, Denmark
Ages 50–69
Biennial screening (1st two rounds)
Population study
De Gelder 2011 (8) 1990– 2006 Yes 8.9%
4.6%
5%
Cases overdiagnosed/Screen-detected cases
Cases overdiagnosed/detected cases
Cases overdiagnosed/cases expected without screening
Lead time The Netherlands
Ages 40–69
Biennial screening
Population study

SEER9 = core 9 catchment areas of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program

*

Includes early years of screening use