Table 5.

Simulated total fertility rate and parity progression ratios for black and white women and by marital status history, based on fully-interactive hazard model (Table 3)

	White	Black	Marital Status History
			Never Married	Married age 20+	Married age 25+	Married age 25–34a
Simulated Total Fertility Rate
Average number of lifetime births
1st parity	0.79 (0.01)	0.96 (0.01)	0.57 (0.02)	0.98 (0.00)	0.95 (0.01)	0.92 (0.01)
2nd parity	0.59 (0.02)	0.82 (0.02)	0.39 (0.02)	0.93 (0.01)	0.82 (0.02)	0.76 (0.02)
3rd parity	0.25 (0.01)	0.48 (0.02)	0.18 (0.01)	0.57 (0.02)	0.37 (0.02)	0.35 (0.01)
4th parity	0.10 (0.01)	0.25 (0.02)	0.08 (0.01)	0.28 (0.02)	0.14 (0.01)	0.14 (0.01)
5th or higher parity	0.05 (0.01)	0.20 (0.03)	0.04 (0.01)	0.18 (0.02)	0.07 (0.01)	0.07 (0.01)
All parities	1.77 (0.04)	2.71 (0.09)	1.27 (0.04)	2.94 (0.06)	2.36 (0.04)	2.24 (0.04)
Simulated Parity Progression Ratios
Probability of progression from:
No births to 1st parity	0.79 (0.01)	0.96 (0.01)	0.57 (0.02)	0.98 (0.00)	0.95 (0.01)	0.92 (0.01)
1st to 2nd parity	0.75 (0.02)	0.86 (0.02)	0.68 (0.02)	0.94 (0.01)	0.86 (0.01)	0.83 (0.01)
2nd to 3rd parity	0.42 (0.02)	0.58 (0.02)	0.46 (0.02)	0.61 (0.02)	0.45 (0.02)	0.46 (0.02)
3rd to 4th parity	0.39 (0.02)	0.53 (0.02)	0.43 (0.02)	0.50 (0.02)	0.39 (0.01)	0.39 (0.01)
4th to 5th or higher parity	0.51 (0.03)	0.80 (0.07)	0.56 (0.05)	0.64 (0.04)	0.52 (0.03)	0.51 (0.03)

^aMarried continously between ages 25 and 34

Notes: All other covariates held at their mean. Bootstrapped SEs in parentheses.

Data and Sample: See Table 1.