Table 6.
The R0 estimates overall and by region
| Province | a. WT estimate of R0 | b. Travel estimate of R0 | c. Uniform between provinces | d. Extra for neighbor provinces | e. Extra for populous provinces |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall |
1.33 |
1.34 |
1.33 |
1.33 |
1.34 |
| (1.31-1.36) |
(1.30-1.38) |
(1.30-1.37) |
(1.30-1.37) |
(1.31-1.37) |
|
| Eastern Cape |
1.33 |
0.78 |
0.77 |
0.94 |
0.71 |
| (1.24-1.44) |
(0.75-0.82) |
(0.75-0.81) |
(0.92-0.98) |
(0.69-0.74) |
|
| Free State |
1.32 |
0.67 |
0.59 |
1.00 |
0.78 |
| (1.19-1.50) |
(0.64-0.71) |
(0.57-0.61) |
(0.98-1.03) |
(0.77-0.81) |
|
| Gauteng |
1.28 |
1.51 |
1.49 |
1.46 |
1.42 |
| (1.27-1.31) |
(1.48-1.54) |
(1.47-1.53) |
(1.44-1.50) |
(1.41-1.45) |
|
| KwaZulu-Natal |
1.37 |
0.90 |
0.98 |
0.95 |
1.25 |
| (1.32-1.45) |
(0.87-0.93) |
(0.96-1.01) |
(0.93-0.97) |
(1.22-1.28) |
|
| Limpopo |
1.36 |
0.68 |
0.70 |
0.92 |
0.72 |
| (1.18-1.54) |
(0.66-0.70) |
(0.68-0.71) |
(0.89-0.94) |
(0.71-0.74) |
|
| Mpumalanga |
1.31 |
0.77 |
0.61 |
0.98 |
0.74 |
| (1.24-1.40) |
(0.74-0.81) |
(0.59-0.62) |
(0.96-1.00) |
(0.73-0.75) |
|
| Northern Cape |
1.23 |
0.50 |
0.46 |
0.82 |
0.61 |
| (1.11-1.48) |
(0.44-0.55) |
(0.45-0.48) |
(0.79-0.85) |
(0.59-0.63) |
|
| Northwest |
1.33 |
0.71 |
0.65 |
0.89 |
0.71 |
| (1.19-1.50) |
(0.67-0.76) |
(0.62-0.68) |
(0.87-0.93) |
(0.69-0.75) |
|
| Western Cape | 1.34 |
1.30 |
1.21 |
1.09 |
1.27 |
| (1.29-1.41) | (1.23-1.35) | (1.16-1.26) | (1.05-1.15) | (1.23-1.32) |
The period considered is the 60 days of the outbreak when the epidemic curve was growing exponentially. Results are the median of the results from the imputed datasets with the range from the 500 datasets shown in parenthesis.