Table 7.

Distributions for parameters allowed to vary in probabilistic sensitivity analyses

Parameter	Distribution	Mean (95% CI or range)
Cost of hip fracture	Log normal	$35,320 (22,010–56,678)
Cost of spine fracture	Log normal	$9,244 (2,230–38,318)
Cost of distal forearm fracture	Log normal	$4,928 (692–35,102)
Cost of other fractures	Log normal	$7,264 (1,707–30,901)
Long-term care costs	Normal	$9,057 (6,556–11,558)
Disutility of fractures	Uniform	50–150% of base case values
Fracture rates	Normal	Standard deviation 22% of mean rate
Vertebral fracture drug efficacy	Log normal	Men: 0.36 (0.22–0.59); women: 0.40 (0.20–0.80)
Non-vertebral fracture drug efficacy	Log normal	Men: 0.73 (0.53–0.99)
Hip fracture drug efficacy	Log normal	Women: 0.60 (0.38–0.94)
Wrist fracture drug efficacy	Log normal	Women: 0.6 (0.44–0.81)
Other fracture drug efficacy	Log normal	Women: 0.8 (0.65–0.99)
Association of hip fracture with prior fracture (logHR)	Log normal	Men: 2.77 (2.22–3.46); women: 2.20 (1.47–3.29)
Association of Hip Fracture with 1 SD change of BMD (logHR)	Log normal	Men: 3.38 (2.65–4.30); women: 2.83 (2.34–3.43)
Association of vertebral fracture with prior fracture (logOR)	Log normal	Men: 2.40 (1.20–4.80); women: 1.32 (1.00–1.78)
Association of vertebral fracture with 1 SD change of BMD (logOR)	Log normal	Men: 1.80 (1.28–2.54); women: 1.90 (1.48–2.45)
Association of Wrist/Other Fracture with Prior Fracture (logHR)	Log normal	Men: 2.04 (1.61–2.59); women: 1.73 (1.57–1.91)
Association of wrist/other fracture with 1 SD change of BMD (logHR)	Log normal	Men: 1.34 (1.17–1.53); women: 1.44 (1.39–1.49)