Table 2.

Results of 1,000 simulated trials for each of six response rate scenarios. t_max Early and t_max Max N show the proportion of trials in which an arm is identified as the best treatment at an interim analysis and at the end of the trial, respectively. t_max is the total probability of identifying a superior treatment. t_min is the probability of identifying the least effective treatment at the end of the trial. t_max or t_min is the probability of identify either (or both). Values are bolded denoting true positives under t_max and t_min.

	Probability Identify
Scenario Response Rates	tmax Early	tmax Max N	tmax	tmin	tmax or tmin
Null 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.50	0.012	0.001	0.013	0.018	0.031
One Good 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.65	0.879	0.013	0.892	0.033	0.902
Two Good 0.50 – 0.65 – 0.65	0.115	0.003	0.118	0.672	0.763
One Middle One Good 0.50 – 0.575 – 0.65	0.481	0.022	0.503	0.245	0.682
All Bad 0.25 – 0.25 – 0.25	0.016	0.001	0.017	0.030	0.044
All Really Bad 0.10 – 0.10 – 0.10	0.006	0.000	0.006	0.000	0.006