Fig. 2.

Population development of dark-bellied brent goose and Russian/Baltic barnacle goose between 1955 and 2008. Lines indicate significant trends (see Results). Over this time period, brent goose breeding success as well as lemming abundance in Taimyr decreased, whereas spring temperature sums (expressed as growing degree days), both at the spring staging site in the Wadden Sea (GDD_w) and at the Taimyr breeding grounds (GDD_b), increased. Average temperature during the gosling phase in summer (T_s) did not change. The shaded area indicates the period since 1988 when overall lemming abundance and climate changed most markedly.