Table 2.

MCMC-based estimates of various tumor promotion and progression time scales. These identifiable parameters are defined as:λ = μ₀ · X · μ₁ ·p_∞, g_P = α_P − β_P − μ₂, g_M = α_M − β_M − ρ, ${\mu }_2^{\mathit{\text{eff}}}={\mu }_2·p_{\infty }$. Here, we define p_∞ ≈ 1 − β_M/α_M (see SI for more details). Estimates represent medians and 95% credibility regions of the marginal posterior distribution for each quantity listed. All units are in years.

males	λ (95% CI) × 10-4	gp (95% CI)	gM (95% CI)	μ2eff (95% CI) × 10-6
CRC	2.13 (2.10 - 2.15)	0.162 (0.160 - 0.164)	2.71 (2.22 - 4.15)	0.73 (0.55 - 0.86)
GaC	0.51 (0.49 - 0.53)	0.140 (0.135 - 0.145)	1.00 (0.80 - 1.30)	3.21 (2.16 - 4.65)
PaC	0.35 (0.34 - 0.36)	0.181 (0.177 - 0.186)	27.7 (7.44 - 49.1)	0.25 (0.21 - 0.32)
EAC	52.9 (34.8 - 99.3)	0.163 (0.133 - 0.190)	1.02 (0.68 - 2.19)	4.65 (1.65 - 10.8)
females	λ (95% CI) × 10-4	gP (95% CI)	gM (95% CI)	μ2eff (95% CI) × 10-6
CRC	1.57 (1.55 - 1.59)	0.149 (0.147 - 0.151)	2.12 (1.75 - 2.75)	1.56 (1.26 - 1.87)
GaC	0.40 (0.36 - 0.44)	0.100 (0.096 - 0.105)	1.06 (0.91 - 1.25)	2.83 (2.36 - 3.39)
PaC	0.34 (0.33 - 0.35)	0.161 (0.157 - 0.165)	30.0 (9.10 - 50.0)	0.30 (0.26 - 0.36)
EAC	9.1 (2.4 - 30.9)	0.170 (0.132 - 0.218)	1.18 (0.86 - 1.71)	4.65 (fixed)