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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Nov 15.
Published in final edited form as: JAMA. 2013 May 15;309(19):2016–2024. doi: 10.1001/jama.2013.4919

Table 2.

Estimated probability of failure from parametric survival models of primary outcomes at 2–7 years after abdominal sacrocolpopexy

Pelvic Organ Prolapse Failure Definition Treatment Group Estimated Probability of Failure (SE)1, Number2/Denominator2, Difference in Treatment Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals
2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 6 Years 7 Years
Symptomatic3 Burch 0.14 (0.026) 0.18 (0.031) 0.21 (0.034) 0.24 (0.038) 0.27 (0.041) 0.29 (0.043)
15/104 16/101 19/94 25/91 27/86 27/73
No Burch 0.12 (0.023) 0.15 (0.027) 0.18 (0.031) 0.20 (0.034) 0.22 (0.036) 0.24 (0.038)
16/111 19/108 20/103 21/96 21/90 22/71
Treatment Difference 0.026 (−0.032, 0.087) 0.032 (−0.040, 0.108) 0.038 (−0.046, 0.124) 0.042 (−0.051, 0.139) 0.046 (−0.056, 0.151) 0.049 (−0.060, 0.162)
Anatomic (Original)4 Burch 0.08 (0.027) 0.12 (0.39) 0.16 (0.049) 0.20 (0.059) 0.23 (0.068) 0.26 (0.075)
6/69 9/61 10/49 12/47 15/44 15/33
No Burch 0.10 (0.029) 0.13 (0.034) 0.16 (0.039) 0.19 (0.043) 0.21 (0.047) 0.23 (0.050)
9/76 10/67 12/63 13/59 14/47 14/37
Treatment Difference −0.017 (−0.098, 0.061) −0.010 (−0.112, 0.093) −0.001 (−0.123, 0.125) 0.009 (−0.133, 0.154) 0.019 (−0.140, 0.182) 0.029 (−0.148, 0.208)
Anatomic (Updated)5 Burch 0.09 (0.036) 0.13 (0.052) 0.16 (0.066) 0.20 (0.078) 0.24 (0.089) 0.27 (0.099)
5/69 8/60 10/48 14/46 18/44 18/35
No Burch 0.09 (0.028) 0.12 (0.033) 0.15 (0.037) 0.17 (0.041) 0.20 (0.045) 0.22 (0.049)
8/76 10/66 12/63 12/59 13/48 13/38
Treatment Difference −0.005 (−0.093, 0.087) 0.005 (−0.110, 0.131) 0.016 (−0.125, 0.170) 0.028(−0.139, 0.207) 0.039(−0.150, 0.240) 0.050(−0.161, 0.271)
Composite6 Burch 0.22 (0.056) 0.29 (0.066) 0.34 (0.074) 0.39 (0.081) 0.44 (0.087) 0.48 (0.092)
14/70 16/63 19/52 27/51 30/49 30/42
No Burch 0.18 (0.038) 0.23 (0.042) 0.26 (0.046) 0.29 (0.049) 0.32 (0.052) 0.34 (0.054)
15/76 18/66 19/62 20/59 21/51 21/45
Treatment Difference 0.035 (−0101, 0.164) 0.060 (−0.102, 0.207) 0.082 (−0.101, 0.244) 0.102 (−0.099, 0.276) 0.119 (−0.098, 0.304) 0.134 (−0.096, 0.322)
Urinary Incontinence Failure Definition Treatment Group Estimated Probability of Failure (SD)1, Number2/Denominator2, Difference in Treatment Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals
2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 6 Years 7 Years
Overall UI7 Burch 0.59 (0.050) 0.65 (0.048) 0.68 (0.047) 0.71 (0.045) 0.73 (0.044) 0.75 (0.043)
48/104 52/101 55/99 58/98 59/97 62/91
No Burch 0.67 (0.039) 0.72 (0.038) 0.76 (0.036) 0.78 (0.035) 0.80 (0.033) 0.81 (0.032)
66/111 70/109 70/105 72/104 73/102 73/92
Treatment Difference −0.082 (−0.203, 0.041) −0.077 (−0.192, 0.038) −0.073 (−0.183, 0.036) −0.070 (−0.174, 0.034) −0.067 (−0.168, 0.033) −0.064 (−0.161, 0.032)
SUI Prevention Failure7 Burch 0.44 (0.052) 0.50 (0.053) 0.54 (0.053) 0.57 (0.052) 0.60 (0.052) 0.62 (0.051)
39/104 47/102 49/99 53/98 55/95 57/89
No Burch 0.61 (0.039) 0.67 (0.038) 0.71 (0.037) 0.73 (0.036) 0.75 (0.035) 0.77 (0.034)
63/110 69/109 76/107 77/105 78/105 79/96
Treatment Difference −0.175 (−0.296, −0.043) −0.172 (−0.291, −0.042) −0.168 (−0.284, −0.041) −0.163 (−0.278, −0.039) −0.158 (−0.271, −0.038) −0.154 (−0.266, −0.037)
SUI7 Burch 0.44 (0.053) 0.49 (0.054) 0.54 (0.054) 0.57 (0.053) 0.60 (0.053) 0.62 (0.052)
39/104 47/102 49/99 53/98 55/95 57/89
No Burch 0.61 (0.039) 0.67 (0.038) 0.70 (0.037) 0.73 (0.036) 0.75 (0.035) 0.77 (0.034)
63/110 68/109 75/107 76/105 78/105 79/96
Treatment Difference −0.173 (−0.298, −0.035) −0.170 (−0.295, −0.034) −0.166 (−0.288, −0.033) −0.161 (−0.281, −0.032) −0.157 (−0.275, −0.030) −0.153 (−0.268, −0.030)
1

Estimated Probability of Failure estimates and corresponding standard errors are from the parametric survival models (demonstrated in eFigures 1–3).

2

Numerators and denominators at each time point include prior failures and exclude prior drop-outs who had not yet met failure criteria

3

Symptom of bulge on Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory OR interval prolapse surgery OR pessary used after index surgery

4

TVL + C > 2 cm OR one of points Ba or Bp > +1 cm

5

C > ( −2/3 x TVL) OR one of points Ba or Bp > 0 cm

6

Anatomic (updated definition) OR symptomatic failure

7

SUI=Stress Urinary Incontinence; UI=Urinary Incontinence

NOTE: The original and updated versions of the anatomic failure could have different denominators for the same time point; this is because a prior anatomic failure means the patient is assigned a failure in all subsequent visits regardless of whether they have completed the visits.