Table 5.
Cox proportional hazards regression models to predict development of HCC based on baseline data (n=975; HCC cases=46)*
| Variable | Model Ia | Model Ib | Model Ic | Model Id | Model II | Model III | Model IV | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | p-value | HR | p-value | HR | p-value | HR | p-value | HR | p-value | HR | p-value | HR | p-value | |
| Age | 1.064 | 0.002 | 1.065 | 0.002 | 1.063 | 0.002 | 1.058 | 0.01 | 1.045 | 0.02 | 1.042 | 0.03 | 1.050 | 0.01 |
| Black race | 2.192 | 0.03 | 2.149 | 0.04 | 1.952 | 0.07 | 2.410 | 0.02 | 2.044 | 0.04 | ||||
| Alkaline phosphatase, U/L Albumin, g/dL | 1.005 | 0.02 | 1.005 | 0.02 | 1.006 | 0.02 | 1.005 | 0.04 | 1.007 | 0.001 | 1.003 | 0.001 | 1.006 | 0.01 |
| AFP >=20 ng/mL | 1.125 | 0.74 | 1.009 | 0.98 | ||||||||||
| DCP 40–149 vs. <40 | 1.614 | 0.18 | 1.627 | 0.17 | 1.642 | 0.16 | ||||||||
| DCP >150 vs. <40 | 5.11 | 0.004 | 5.245 | 0.004 | 4.667 | 0.01 | ||||||||
| Cirrhosis on biopsy | 0.906 | 0.77 | 0.905 | 0.76 | 0.928 | 0.82 | 0.727 | 0.34 | ||||||
| Esophageal varices | 2.663 | 0.003 | 2.652 | 0.003 | 2.811 | 0.002 | 2.108 | 0.03 | 1.971 | 0.03 | 2.164 | 0.02 | ||
| Randomization group | 1.186 | 0.58 | 1.197 | 0.57 | 1.162 | 0.62 | 1.141 | 0.67 | ||||||
| Ever smoked | 2.735 | 0.02 | 2.741 | 0.02 | 2.387 | 0.04 | 2.564 | 0.03 | 2.114 | 0.07 | ||||
| Platelets x1000/mm3 | 0.989 | 0.02 | 0.988 | <0.0001 | 0.984 | 0.002 | 0.989 | 0.001 | ||||||
| AST, U/L | 1.003 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||
| APRI | 1.244 | 0.001 | 1.236 | 0.002 | 1.258 | 0.001 | ||||||||
HR=Hazard ratio
*
2 HCC cases and 28 controls were excluded because DCP value or endoscopy data were missing Regression formulas for models II, III and IV, and calculators for these models, will be available at the HALT-C trial website www.haltctrial.org