Table 4.
Area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of the case-mix based logistic regression models to identify patients located above the 95th percentile of health spending
| |
Demographic variables only |
ACG-PM |
CRG |
DCG-HCC |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of the box | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI |
| Variables: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A&S + dx + rx + cost percentiles (age < 65) |
|
|
0,816 |
(0.813 - 0.818) |
|
|
|
|
| A&S + dx + rx + cost percentiles (age 65+) |
|
|
0,761 |
(0.760 - 0.764) |
|
|
|
|
| A&S + dx |
|
|
|
|
0,787 |
(0.786 - 0.789) |
0,824 |
(0.822 - 0.825) |
| A&S + dx + rx + cost |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,852 |
(0.851 - 0.853) |
| Recalibration |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Variables: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A&S (Age and sex) |
0,774 |
(0.773 - 0.776) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A&S + Only Dx |
|
|
0,845 |
(0.844 - 0.847) |
0,797 |
(0.795 - 0.798) |
0,846 |
(0.845 - 0.848) |
| A&S + Only Rx |
|
|
0,833 |
(0.831 - 0.834) |
|
|
0,837 |
(0.836 - 0.838) |
| A&S + Dx + Rx |
|
|
0,847 |
(0.853 - 0.856) |
|
|
0,858 |
(0.857 - 0.859) |
| A&S + Dx + Rx + cost percentile |
|
|
0,868 |
(0.866- 0.869) |
0.848* |
(0.847 - 0.849) |
0,868 |
(0.867 - 0.869) |
| A&S + Dx + Rx + cost percentile + DI | 0,868 | (0.867 - 0.869) | 0.848* | (0.847 - 0.850) | 0,868 | |||
*The CRG models do not include prescriptions.
Age groups: 14–17; 18–34; 35–44; 45–54; 55–64; 65–69; 70–74; 75–79; 80–84; 85 + .
Cost groups in percentiles: 0–1; 2–10; 11–25; 26–50; 51–75; 76–90; 91–93; 94–95; 96–97; 98 + .
Dx diagnoses, Rx Prescriptions, DI Deprivation index.