Table 5.
Area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of the case-mix based logistic regression models to identify patients located above the 99th percentile of health spending
| |
Demographic variables only |
ACG-PM |
CRG |
DCG-HCC |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of the box | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI | AUC | 95% CI |
| Variables: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A&S + dx + rx + cost percentiles (age < 65) |
|
|
0,852 |
(0.847 - 0.857) |
|
|
|
|
| A&S + dx + rx + cost percentiles (age 65+) |
|
|
0,779 |
(0.774 - 0.783) |
|
|
|
|
| A&S + dx |
|
|
|
|
0,814 |
(0.811 - 0.818) |
0,858 |
(0.8556 - 0.861) |
| A&S + dx + rx + cost |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0,882 |
(0.880 - 0.885) |
| Recalibration |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Variables: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A&S (Age and sex) |
0,811 |
(0.809 - 0.814) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A&S + Only Dx |
|
|
0,882 |
(0.880 - 0.884) |
0,829 |
(0.826 - 0.832) |
0,884 |
(0.882 - 0.886) |
| A&S + Only Rx |
|
|
0,862 |
(0.859 - 0.864) |
|
|
0,865 |
(0.863 - 0.868) |
| A&S + Dx + Rx |
|
|
0,889 |
(0.887 - 0.891) |
|
|
0,892 |
(0.890 - 0.894) |
| A&S + Dx + Rx + cost percentile |
|
|
0,897 |
(0.895 - 0.899) |
0,869* |
(0.866 - 0.871) |
0,899 |
(0.897 - 0.901) |
| A&S + Dx + Rx + cost percentile + DI | 0,897 | (0.895 - 0.899) | 0,869* | (0.866 - 0.872) | 0,899 | (0.897 - 0.902) | ||
*The CRG models do not include prescriptions.
Age groups: 14–17; 18–34; 35–44; 45–54; 55–64; 65–69; 70–74; 75–79; 80–84; 85 + .
Cost groups in percentiles: 0–1; 2–10; 11–25; 26–50; 51–75; 76–90; 91–93; 94–95; 96–97; 98 + .
Dx diagnoses, Rx prescriptions, DI Deprivation index.