Table 1.
Model performance, four models: IP, IPAE, IPAEOP, IPAEOPGP
Risk score threshold | IP data |
IP+AE data |
IP+AE+OP data |
IP+AE+OP+GP Data |
||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
True-positive | PPV | Sensitivity | True-positive | PPV | Sensitivity | True-positive | PPV | Sensitivity | True-positive | PPV | Sensitivity | |
1 | 94 692 | 0.052 | 1.000 | 94 692 | 0.052 | 1.000 | 94 692 | 0.052 | 1.000 | 94 692 | 0.052 | 1.000 |
5 | 54 450 | 0.126 | 0.575 | 56 117 | 0.128 | 0.593 | 56 438 | 0.131 | 0.596 | 61 498 | 0.133 | 0.649 |
10 | 33 053 | 0.219 | 0.349 | 34 102 | 0.221 | 0.360 | 35 033 | 0.223 | 0.370 | 39 986 | 0.220 | 0.422 |
15 | 22 898 | 0.285 | 0.242 | 23 166 | 0.293 | 0.245 | 24 261 | 0.290 | 0.256 | 28 697 | 0.283 | 0.303 |
20 | 16 181 | 0.346 | 0.171 | 16 915 | 0.347 | 0.179 | 17 719 | 0.344 | 0.187 | 21 601 | 0.333 | 0.228 |
25 | 12 670 | 0.385 | 0.134 | 13 182 | 0.386 | 0.139 | 13 754 | 0.383 | 0.145 | 16 672 | 0.378 | 0.176 |
30 | 10 061 | 0.421 | 0.106 | 10 555 | 0.422 | 0.111 | 11 010 | 0.419 | 0.116 | 13 196 | 0.417 | 0.139 |
35 | 8130 | 0.449 | 0.086 | 8600 | 0.450 | 0.091 | 8986 | 0.448 | 0.095 | 10 516 | 0.450 | 0.111 |
40 | 6700 | 0.477 | 0.071 | 7139 | 0.478 | 0.075 | 7421 | 0.476 | 0.078 | 8494 | 0.479 | 0.090 |
45 | 5535 | 0.501 | 0.058 | 5976 | 0.504 | 0.063 | 6167 | 0.499 | 0.065 | 6921 | 0.510 | 0.073 |
50 | 4627 | 0.529 | 0.049 | 5027 | 0.531 | 0.053 | 5172 | 0.523 | 0.055 | 5669 | 0.538 | 0.060 |
55 | 3862 | 0.551 | 0.041 | 4222 | 0.551 | 0.045 | 4359 | 0.543 | 0.046 | 4581 | 0.562 | 0.048 |
60 | 3239 | 0.574 | 0.034 | 3555 | 0.569 | 0.038 | 3658 | 0.567 | 0.039 | 3735 | 0.587 | 0.039 |
65 | 2711 | 0.593 | 0.029 | 3012 | 0.590 | 0.032 | 3041 | 0.587 | 0.032 | 3034 | 0.618 | 0.032 |
70 | 2245 | 0.617 | 0.024 | 2481 | 0.612 | 0.026 | 2519 | 0.610 | 0.027 | 2453 | 0.645 | 0.026 |
75 | 1816 | 0.634 | 0.019 | 2049 | 0.639 | 0.022 | 2064 | 0.631 | 0.022 | 1921 | 0.666 | 0.020 |
80 | 1418 | 0.666 | 0.015 | 1662 | 0.656 | 0.018 | 1646 | 0.654 | 0.017 | 1478 | 0.696 | 0.016 |
85 | 1064 | 0.679 | 0.011 | 1293 | 0.674 | 0.014 | 1276 | 0.679 | 0.013 | 1114 | 0.711 | 0.012 |
90 | 769 | 0.710 | 0.008 | 932 | 0.688 | 0.010 | 935 | 0.702 | 0.010 | 754 | 0.738 | 0.008 |
95 | 478 | 0.748 | 0.005 | 592 | 0.725 | 0.006 | 586 | 0.728 | 0.006 | 437 | 0.771 | 0.005 |
Top 1% | 8214 | 0.447 | 0.087 | 8353 | 0.455 | 0.088 | 8410 | 0.458 | 0.089 | 8722 | 0.475 | 0.092 |
Top 5% | 24 873 | 0.271 | 0.263 | 25 355 | 0.276 | 0.268 | 25 712 | 0.280 | 0.272 | 26 991 | 0.294 | 0.285 |
ROC C Statistic | 0.731 | 0.745 | 0.752 | 0.780 |
Five site individual runs combined.
PPV, positive predictive values; ROC, receiver operator characteristic.