Figure 3.

Estimated fruit fly recapture probabilities at the county level for nine fruit fly species in California in subsequent years (1–10 years) following a detection. For example, the probabilities of a repeat outbreak occurring for A. striata, C. capitata and B. dorsalis the first year following a detection are around 0.20, 0.65 and 0.88, respectively; the fifth year after a detection they are around 0.65, 0.75 and 0.98, respectively; and the 10th year after a detection they are around 1.00, 0.91 and 0.98, respectively.