Table 3.
Outcomes of Mammography Every 2 Years, Mammography Every 3 to 4 Years, and No Mammography in Women With No Previous Breast Biospy or Family History of Breast Cancer
| Age and BI-RADS Category |
Patients % |
10-Year Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer% |
10-Year Incidence of False-Positive Results%* |
Mammography Frequency Comparison |
Number Needed to Screen† |
Cost per QALY Gained$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–49 y | ||||||
| 1 | 4.4 | 0.43 | 17.2 | 3–4 y vs. none | 8475 | 228 427 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 27 778 | 362 699 | ||||
| 2 | 35.3 | 0.89 | 33.3 | 3–4 y vs. none | 4870 | 120 113 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 12 195 | 140 048 | ||||
| 3 | 46.8 | 1.38 | 38.9 | 3–4 y vs. none | 4386 | 90 646 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 7813 | 87 769† | ||||
| 4 | 13.5 | 1.79 | 38.8 | 3–4 y vs. none | 2703 | 83 899 |
| 2 y vs. none | 6579 | 74 482† | ||||
| 50–59 y | ||||||
| 1 | 7.8 | 0.85 | 15.9 | 3–4 y vs. none | 3077 | 72 184 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 11 364 | 208 748 | ||||
| 2 | 46.6 | 1.79 | 30.0 | 3–4 y vs. none | 1582 | 36 212 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 7576 | 89 189 | ||||
| 3 | 39.2 | 2.78 | 36.8 | 3–4 y vs. none | 1196 | 22 878 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 4202 | 46 629 | ||||
| 4 | 6.4 | 3.63 | 35.9 | 3–4 y vs. none | 1010 | 17 131 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 2564 | 23 962 | ||||
| 60–69 y | ||||||
| 1 | 9.4 | 1.47 | 14.2 | 3–4 y vs. none | 1109 | 30 976 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 5556 | 129 117 | ||||
| 2 | 49.5 | 2.58 | 26.5 | 3–4 y vs. none | 646 | 16 724 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 4425 | 63 707 | ||||
| 3 | 35.9 | 3.80 | 33.0 | 3–4 y vs. none | 482 | 12 163 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 2732 | 30 948 | ||||
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.42 | 33.6 | 3–4 y vs. none | 396 | 8385 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 2041 | 21 425 | ||||
| 70–79 y | ||||||
| 1 | 11.9 | 1.94 | 12.4 | 3–4 y vs. none | 704 | 18 223 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 7143 | 150 568 | ||||
| 2 | 53.9 | 2.95 | 23.0 | 3–4 y vs. none 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 491 4065 | 13 574 96 004 |
| 3 | 30.8 | 4.08 | 24.7 | 3–4 y vs. none | 339 | 5214 |
| 2 y vs. 3–4 y | 2959 | 50 982 | ||||
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.13 | 22.7 | 3–4 y vs. none 2 y vs. 3–4 y |
337 2841 |
5400 40 540 |
BI-RADS = Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System; QALY = quality-adjusted life-year.
Estimates shown reflect empirical data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium for mammography every 2 y. Cumulative incidence of false-positive mammography results are assumed to be the same regardless of whether mammography is performed every 3 to 4 y or every 2 y.
Number of women needed to screen over 10 y to prevent 1 death from breast cancer.
Cost per QALY gained is for mammography every 2 y vs. no mammography because mammography every 2 y is weakly dominant over mammography every 3 to 4 y.