Table 3.

Regression models predicting risk of illness in cycle 5 from individual and area characteristics in cycle 2: Odds ratios compared with reference group (and confidence intervals in parentheses).

		Restricted Activity		Psychological Distress
		model 1	model 2	model 3	model 4
Individual Predictor Variables
Variable and Reference Category	Categories
Health status on the Outcome (reference group is no health problem)	Already has Health Problem	9.16 (7.31 – 11.48)	9.05 (7.21 – 11.34)	4.77 (3.12 – 7.29)	4.97 (3.23 – 7.62)
Sex (reference groups is males)	Females	1.06 (0.88 – 1.29)	1.06 (0.87 – 1.29)	1.53 (1.12 – 2.10)	1.53 (1.11 – 2.09)
Age Cohort (by age in 1996) Reference group is (15–24)	25–34	1.01 (0.70 – 1.47)	1.02 (0.70 – 1.48)	0.65 (0.42 – 0.99)	0.64 (0.42 – 0.99)
	35–44	1.49 (1.04 – 2.12)	1.49 (1.04 – 2.12)	0.65 (0.44 – 0.97)	0.66 (0.44 – 0.99)
	45–54	2.03 (1.45 – 2.85)	2.01 (1.43 – 2.82)	0.45 (0.28 – 0.71)	0.44 (0.28 – 0.71)
Individual Predictor Variables
Income Group Cycle 2 (reference group is lowest income)	Middle	0.53 (0.36 – 0.79)	0.53 (0.36 – 0.78)	0.69 (0.43 – 1.11)	0.66 (0.40 – 1.07)
	Upper Middle	0.51 (0.35 – 0.73)	0.50 (0.34 – 0.73)	0.54 (0.32 – 0.90)	0.53 (0.32 – 0.89)
	Highest	0.42 (0.28 – 0.64)	0.41 (0.27 – 0.61)	0.42 (0.25 – 0.71)	0.42 (0.25 – 0.70)
Educational Level Cycle 2 (reference group is less than secondary)	Secondary Graduation	1.20 (0.84 – 1.72)	1.21 (0.84 – 1.72)	0.80 (0.42 – 1.54)	0.82 (0.43 – 1.57)
	Some Post Secondary	1.10 (0.81 – 1.49)	1.09 (0.81 – 1.49)	0.79 (0.45 – 1.38)	0.81 (0.46 – 1.40)
	Post- Secondary Graduate	0.94 (0.69 – 1.29)	0.92 (0.67 – 1.24)	0.92 (0.56 – 1.52)	0.92 (0.56 – 1.52)
Household Composition cycle 2 (reference group is living with partner with/without children)	Single Parent with Dependent Children	1.15 (0.88 – 1.51)	1.13 (0.86 – 1.50)	1.37 (0.95 – 1.99)	1.35 (0.92 – 1.97)
	Living Alone/Unatt ached	1.19 (0.85 – 1.66)	1.18 (0.84 – 1.66)	1.60 (1.05 – 2.44)	1.58 (1.02 – 2.44)
Area Predictor variables
Material Deprivation quintile cycle 2 (Reference group is quintile 1)	2nd	1.10 (0.82 – 1.50)		0.95 (0.59 – 1.54)
	3rd	1.50 (1.11 – 2.03)		1.02 (0.68 – 1.54)
	4th	1.42 (1.05 – 1.93)		1.12 (0.71 – 1.76)
	5th (most deprived)	1.09 (0.79 – 1.51)		0.82 (0.50 – 1.36)
Social Deprivation quintile cycle 2 (reference group is quintile 1)	2nd		0.92 (0.67 – 1.26)		1.03 (0.66 – 1.62)
	3rd		1.05 (0.76 – 1.43)		0.63 (0.38 – 1.03)
	4th		1.00 (0.74 – 1.36)		1.23 (0.77 – 1.98)
	5th (most deprived)		0.95 (0.68 – 1.31)		0.92 (0.58 – 1.43)