Table 1. Traditional and modified ROC AUC values for ENMs built on GARP and Maxent algorithms.
MODEL TRAINING | MODEL TESTING | PARAMETER | GARP | Maxent |
On-Diagonal | Off-Diagonal | Minimum | 1.0914 | 1.2605 |
Maximum | 1.6151 | 1.7410 | ||
Mean | 1.4528 | 1.4403 | ||
Standard deviation | 0.0884 | 0.0876 | ||
# replicates≤1 | 0 | 0 | ||
P | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||
Traditional ROC AUC | 0.8376 | 0.886 | ||
Off-Diagonal | On-Diagonal | Minimum | 1.0171 | 1.2317 |
Maximum | 1.6569 | 1.8229 | ||
Mean | 1.3137 | 1.3439 | ||
Standard deviation | 0.2075 | 0.1637 | ||
# replicates≤1 | 0 | 0 | ||
P | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||
Traditional ROC AUC | 0.8377 | 0.8770 | ||
1980s | 2000s | Minimum | 1.0014 | 1.1259 |
Maximum | 1.504 | 1.5011 | ||
Mean | 1.1025 | 1.1541 | ||
Standard deviation | 0.0992 | 0.0609 | ||
# replicates≤1 | 0 | 0 | ||
P | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||
Traditional ROC AUC | 0.7306 | 0.7483 | ||
1980s projected onto 2000s conditions | 2000s | Minimum | 1.4170 | 1.4348 |
Maximum | 1.5431 | 1.7221 | ||
Mean | 1.4377 | 1.4449 | ||
Standard deviation | 0.2 | 0.326 | ||
# replicates≤1 | 0 | 0 | ||
P | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||
Traditional ROC AUC | 0.7964 | 0.8622 |
Traditional and modified ROC AUC values for GARP and Maxent models trained and tested with independent spatial subsets of WHO occurrence data subsets (first two sections). Performance of models trained with data from WHO (1980s) and applied directly to recent occurrence data, or projected onto environmental conditions of the 2000s is shown in the succeeding sections. Modified ROC AUC values are reported as minimum, maximum, mean, and standard deviation of 1000 random replicates; also provided is the number of bootstrap replicates falling at or below 1.