Table 3.
Outcome measure | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | Years of life loss | Contingent value | Infections | Hospitalizations | |||||||
Parameter | SI | Parameter | SI | Parameter | SI | Parameter | SI | Parameter | SI | ||
Age group 5–17 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.51 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.46 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.50 | Age group 0.5–4 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.56 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.52 |
Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.30 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.29 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.28 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.41 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.41 | ||
Reproductive number (R) | 0.10 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.19 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.16 | Vaccine efficacy (vs infection) ages 0.5–16 | 0.004 | Vaccine efficacy (vs infection) ages 16–65 | 0.03 | ||
Age group 18–44 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.48 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.33 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.41 | Age group 5–17 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.54 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.54 |
Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.47 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.32 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.35 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.43 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.33 | ||
Reproductive number (R) | 0.03 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.20 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.13 | Susceptibility ages 5–17 | 0.013 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.07 | ||
High-risk group | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.41 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.81 | Reproductive number (R) | 0.77 | Age group 18–44 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.49 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.46 |
Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.30 | Vaccine efficacy (vs infection) ages 16–65 | 0.06 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.04 | Recovery rate ages 0–14 | 0.48 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.41 | ||
Reproductive number (R) | 0.21 | Recovery rate ages 15+ | 0.03 | Vaccine efficacy (vs infection) ages 16–65 | 0.03 | Susceptibility ages 5–17 | 0.006 | Vaccine efficacy (vs infection) ages 16–65 | 0.08 |
The first-order sensitivity index (SI) was used to determine the contribution of input parameters to the variability of the optimal proportions of individuals vaccinated per group. The analysis only considered groups with sufficient variability in the distribution of the optimal proportion of vaccinated individuals (Figure 1). The amount of vaccine was 80M doses.