Table 2. Summary of project climate change effects on flowering date, full maturity date and concentrations of deoxynivalenol in winter wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands, based on KNMI and HC climate model data.
| FD baseline 1 | FD future 1 | FD difference 1 | MD baseline 1 | MD future 1 | MD difference 1 | DON baseline 1,2 | DON future 1 | DON difference 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | |||||||||
| KNMI average | 162 | 157 | -5 | 250 | 240 | -10 | 2564 | 2282 | -282 |
| Minimum | 156 | 151 | -6 | 239 | 230 | -14 | 506 | 730 | * |
| Maximum | 165 | 160 | -3 | 259 | 246 | -5 | 5737 | 6361 | * |
| HC average | 162 | 151 | -11 | 250 | 233 | -17 | 2728 | 2634 | -95 |
| Minimum | 156 | 147 | -12 | 239 | 225 | -22 | 560 | 914 | * |
| Maximum | 165 | 154 | -9 | 259 | 239 | -13 | 5957 | 12501 | * |
| Maize | |||||||||
| KNMI average | 215 | 208 | -7 | 261 | 242 | -19 | 188 | 33 | -155 |
| Minimum | 205 | 198 | -9 | 239 | 223 | -28 | 5 | 1 | * |
| Maximum | 222 | 215 | -4 | 278 | 251 | -14 | 402 | 85 | * |
| HC average | 215 | 201 | -14 | 261 | 225 | -36 | 256 | 6 | -250 |
| Minimum | 205 | 191 | -17 | 239 | 210 | -45 | 13 | 0 | * |
| Maximum | 222 | 208 | -11 | 278 | 235 | -29 | 545 | 34 | * |
1 FD: Flowering data (Ordinal date), MD: Full maturity date (Ordinal date), DON: deoxynivalenol concentration (in μg kg-1 , Diff: Difference between dates (in days), * Not calculated.
2 Note: differences in DON concentrations between KNMI and HC model data in the baseline period are due to differences in data on relative humidity; data on rainfall and temperature are identical since this series corresponded to the observed series.