Table 4. Final vector auto-regression (VAR) model predicting mortality rates of spectacled flying-foxes (Pteropus conspicillatus) caused by tick paralysis and total population count of affected camps.

Dependent Variable	Independent Variables	Coefficient	95% Confidence interval	p-value
Annual prevalence	L1 Disease Rate	−0.561	−1.139; 0.017	0.057
	L2 Disease Rate	−1.352	−2.235; −0.468	0.003
	L1 Population	−0.0002	−0.007; 0.007	0.959
	L2 Population	0.0107	−0.015; −0.006	<0.001
	Q1 Total Rainfall	−0.218	−0.406; −0.030	0.023
	Q3 Total Rainfall	−02.792	−4.254; −1.330	<0.001
	Q4 Total Rainfall	0.122	−0.134; 0.378	0.350
	Q4 9am Temperature	35.357	−25.403; 96.118	0.254
Population of affected camps	L1 Disease Rate	110.977	49.597; 172.357	<0.001
	L2 Disease Rate	113.004	19.186; 206.8.22	0.018
	L1 Population	−0.025	−0.772; 0.721	0.947
	L2 Population	1.035	0.544; 1.526	<0.001
	Q1 Total Rainfall	25.606	5.632; 45.581	0.012
	Q3 Total Rainfall	248.009	92.777; 403.241	0.002
	Q4 Total Rainfall	−5.484	−32.678; 21.711	0.693
	Q4 9am Temperature	2693.723	−3758.347; 9145.793	0.413

L1  =  one year prior; L2 =  two years prior. Variables omitted from the analysis due to co-linearity include: Q1 Maximum Temperature; Q3 Humidity; Q3 Hours of Sunshine; Q3 Evaporation; Q4 Minimum Temperature.