Table 1. Objective Probability of Mortality.

	Descriptive Statistics SAD		Descriptive Statistics HRSa		Hazard Results
					Coefficients		Hazard Ratios
Variables	Mean	Std. dev.	Mean	Std. dev.	Coefficient	Std. error	Hazard ratio	95% Conf. interval
A. Alcohol consumption characteristics
Drinking categories
Heavy drinker	0.05	0.21	0.06	0.23	−0.26	0.21	0.77	[0.51, 1.17]
Binge drinker	0.40	0.49	0.14	0.35	0.15	0.13	1.16	[0.90, 1.49]
Heavy binge drinker	0.23	0.42	0.11	0.31	0.15	0.14	1.16	[0.89, 1.51]
Other drinker	0.32	0.47	0.69	0.46	-	-	-	-
CAGE = 0	0.38	0.49	0.73	0.45	-	-	-	-
CAGE = 1	0.24	0.43	0.14	0.34	0.05	0.13	1.05	[0.81, 1.36]
CAGE = 2	0.21	0.41	0.079	0.27	−0.11	0.17	0.90	[0.65, 1.24]
CAGE = 3/4	0.17	0.38	0.053	0.22	0.17	0.17	1.19	[0.85, 1.67]
B. Health characteristics
Self-rated health
Excellent	0.25	0.43	0.23	0.42	-	-	-	-
Very good	0.44	0.50	0.36	0.48	0.43**	0.16	1.54	[1.13, 2.10]
Good	0.22	0.42	0.27	0.45	0.93**	0.16	2.54	[1.85, 3.49]
Fair	0.06	0.24	0.10	0.31	1.48**	0.19	4.39	[3.01, 6.39]
Poor	0.02	0.13	0.03	0.18	2.31**	0.28	10.12	[5.90, 17.38]
Cognition status
Recall	7.41	0.81	7.52	0.79	−0.049	0.055	0.95	[0.85, 1.06]
Serial-7 subtraction	4.56	0.90	3.88	1.47	−0.044	0.034	0.96	[0.90, 1.02]
Numeracy	2.45	0.77	-	-	-	-	-	-
Memory = excellent	0.16	0.36	0.07	0.25	-	-	-	-
Memory = very good / good	0.72	0.45	0.69	0.46	−0.051	0.184	0.95	[0.66, 1.36]
Memory = fair / poor	0.12	0.33	0.24	0.43	−0.328	0.20	0.72	[0.49. 1.07]
C. Demographic characteristics
Female	0.54	0.50	0.51	0.50	−0.64**	0.11	0.53	[0.43, 0.65]
Age	43.4	12.51	58.77	5.43	0.086**	0.011	1.09	[1.07, 1.11]
Non-Hispanic white	0.86	0.34	0.81	0.39	-	-	-	-
Hispanic	0.03	0.16	0.06	0.24	−0.13	0.19	0.88	[0.60, 1.28]
Black	0.11	0.32	0.12	0.32	−0.12	0.14	0.89	[0.67, 1.17]
Other race	0.04	0.19	0.02	0.15	−0.35	0.33	0.70	[0.36, 1.35]
Currently married	0.46	0.50	0.77	0.42	−0.2	0.11	0.82	[0.66, 1.01]
Edu. attainment (yrs.)	15.6	1.94	12.95	2.85	0.023	0.018	1.02	[0.99, 1.06]
D. City
Raleigh	0.39	0.49
Hickory	0.06	0.23
Philadelphia	0.11	0.32
Wilkes-Barre	0.05	0.22
Seattle	0.16	0.37
Yakima	0.04	0.19
La Crosse	0.08	0.27
Milwaukee	0.11	0.31
E. Mortality
Prob. of death (through 2008)	-	-	0.13	0.34	-	-	-	-
Intercept					−11.5**	0.89	-	-
Shape parameter					1.585**	0.081	1.585**	0.081
Log likelihood					−2086.8		−2086.8
Number of observations	1,359		4,957		4,957		4,957

^aBaseline characteristics are from HRS data wave 3, 1996.

HRS data are for 1996-2008.

^**p<0.01,

^*p<0.05