Table 3. Effect of climate change to 2050 on NCA sand fly ENM breadth, centroid and elevation shift.
| Categories | Species | A2 SCENARIO | B2 SCENARIO | ||||
| Range overlap conserved (%) | Centroid distance change (km) | Change in elevation range (km) | Range overlap conserved (%) | Centroid distance change (km) | Change in elevation range (km) | ||
| Tropical | Brumptomyia hamata | 76.95 | 176.00 | +105.00 | 77.31 | 175.00 | −21.00 |
| Br. mesai | 73.31 | 195.00 | +60.00 | 75.52 | 199.00 | −49.00 | |
| Lutzomyia beltrani | 67.72 | 278.00 | −44.00 | 72.22 | 283.00 | −138.00 | |
| Lu. bispinosa | 50.34 | 422.00 | +18.00 | 55.89 | 399.00 | −156.00 | |
| Lu. carpenteri | 67.42 | 181.00 | +266.00 | 73.22 | 183.00 | −69.00 | |
| Lu. cayennensis | 61.95 | 336.00 | +5.00 | 74.12 | 232.00 | −48.00 | |
| Lu. chiapanensis | 75.96 | 170.00 | +4.00 | 76.66 | 242.00 | −141.00 | |
| Lu. cratifer | 70.29 | 208.00 | +78.00 | 73.91 | 255.00 | −96.00 | |
| Lu. cruciata | 11.41 | 272.00 | −126.00 | 41.21 | 220.00 | −297.00 | |
| Lu. deleoni | 77.19 | 152.00 | +67.00 | 77.48 | 187.00 | −68.00 | |
| Lu. dodgei | 66.31 | 390.00 | −28.00 | 75.31 | 263.00 | −136.00 | |
| Lu. longipalpis | 61.29 | 421.00 | −113.00 | 71.51 | 260.00 | −177.00 | |
| Lu. olmeca olmeca | 59.43 | 341.00 | +56.00 | 68.32 | 285.00 | −72.00 | |
| Lu. ovallesi | 48.86 | 516.00 | −27.00 | 62.39 | 371.00 | −102.00 | |
| Lu. panamensis | 68.95 | 228.00 | +148.00 | 74.00 | 235.00 | +5.00 | |
| Lu. permira | 80.20 | 139.00 | −21.00 | 80.10 | 183.00 | −127.00 | |
| Lu. serrana | 77.00 | 162.00 | +87.00 | 76.29 | 252.00 | −100.00 | |
| Lu. shannoni | 23.40 | 119.00 | −21.00 | 45.08 | 130.00 | −117.00 | |
| Lu. steatopyga | 74.70 | 131.00 | +5.00 | 73.78 | 235.00 | −53.00 | |
| Lu. trinidadensis | 65.80 | 272.00 | −77.00 | 74.94 | 204.00 | −130.00 | |
| Lu. undulata | 78.40 | 144.00 | +24.00 | 80.06 | 164.00 | −20.00 | |
| Lu. ylephiletor | 64.90 | 318.00 | −105.00 | 70.08 | 314.00 | −107.00 | |
| Temperate | Lu. anthophora | 51.47 | 238.00 | +78.00 | 46.70 | 336.00 | +68.00 |
| Lu. californica | 26.14 | 257.00 | −76.00 | 48.87 | 314.00 | −200.00 | |
| Lu. diabolica | 68.50 | 262.00 | +165.00 | 70.47 | 240.00 | −7.00 | |
| Lu. stewarti | 25.30 | 220.00 | −78.00 | 43.36 | 234.00 | −303.00 | |
| Broad-range | Lu. texana | 60.70 | 289.00 | +127.00 | 62.94 | 282.00 | +186.00 |
| Lu. vexator | 46.10 | 116.00 | −79.00 | 70.58 | 197.00 | −115.00 | |
The HadCM3 model was used for B2 and A2 scenarios.