Table 4. Rural population in Mexico with current hazard or that projected for 2050 for Leishmania spp. vector transmission.
Categories | Vector species | CURRENT | B2 SCENARIO 2050 | A2 SCENARIO 2050 | ||||||||||
CSIRO | HadCM3 | CSIRO | HadCM3 | |||||||||||
20 | 50 | 80 | 20 | 50 | 80 | 20 | 50 | 80 | 20 | 50 | 80 | |||
Tropical | Lu. cruciata | 23.6 | 30.5 | 37.9 | 42.5 | 29.3 | 41.0 | 49.1 | 29.0 | 38.6 | 43.7 | 35.4 | 41.8 | 49.0 |
Lu. longipalpis | 16.6 | 21.5 | 26.5 | 28.7 | 20.4 | 26.9 | 32.8 | 21.1 | 26.8 | 31.1 | 20.4 | 27.1 | 32.8 | |
Lu. o. olmeca | 10.0 | 13.1 | 16.1 | 17.6 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 18.8 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 18.2 | 12.3 | 16.6 | 18.8 | |
Lu. ovallesi | 11.1 | 16.7 | 20.7 | 22.9 | 16.0 | 21.7 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 21.3 | 24.6 | 16.0 | 21.9 | 26.2 | |
Lu. panamensis | 13.2 | 16.9 | 20.5 | 22.3 | 16.2 | 21.8 | 25.5 | 16.6 | 21.2 | 23.8 | 16.1 | 21.8 | 25.5 | |
Lu. shannoni | 23.3 | 30.5 | 36.4 | 39.4 | 28.0 | 38.5 | 43.5 | 27.2 | 35.8 | 39.9 | 29.0 | 39.2 | 43.5 | |
Lu. ylephiletor | 15.3 | 19.3 | 23.6 | 25.3 | 18.8 | 24.7 | 28.8 | 19.1 | 24.0 | 26.1 | 18.8 | 24.5 | 28.7 | |
Temperate | Lu. anthophora | 11.8 | 14.8 | 21.7 | 20.3 | 15.7 | 16.1 | 20.1 | 14.0 | 19.4 | 18.0 | 15.4 | 18.5 | 20.0 |
Lu. diabolica | 31.7 | 41.8 | 54.3 | 56.3 | 41.5 | 55.3 | 56.9 | 41.9 | 55.1 | 56.6 | 42.2 | 56.0 | 56.8 |
Census database from INEGI (www.inegi.mx); population expressed in millions.