Does the Orphan Disadvantage “Spill Over?” An analysis of whether living in an area with a higher concentration of orphans is associated with children’s school enrollment in sub-Saharan Africa

. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2014 Jun 6.

Published in final edited form as: Demogr Res. 2013 Jun 6;28:1167–1198. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.40

	Western¹						Eastern²
Model	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
	OR	SE	OR	SE	OR	SE	OR	SE	OR	SE	OR	SE
Level 2 - Province
Children orphaned by province (%)	1.08^**	0.03	1.33^*	0.15	1.17	0.12	1.10^***	0.03	1.26^**	0.10	1.12	0.07
Children orphaned by province (%, Sqrd)			0.99^*	0.00	0.99	0.02			0.99^*	0.00	0.99^*	0.00
Household head has no formal education (%)					0.98^***	0.00					0.97^***	0.00
Female headed household (%)					1.01	0.01					1.05^***	0.01
Mean household size					1.06^*	0.03					1.00	0.09
Level 1 - Individual
Female	0.69^***	0.01	0.69^***	0.01	0.69^***	0.01	0.81^***	0.02	0.81^***	0.02	0.81^***	0.02
Age	1.06^***	0.00	1.06^***	0.00	1.06^***	0.00	1.18^***	0.01	1.18^***	0.01	1.18^***	0.01
Relationship to household head
Parent⁵
Grandparent	1.05	0.03	1.05	0.03	1.05	0.03	1.15^**	0.06	1.15^**	0.06	1.15^**	0.06
Relative	0.63^***	0.02	0.63^***	0.02	0.63^***	0.02	0.49^***	0.03	0.49^***	0.03	0.49^***	0.03
Sibling	0.46^***	0.02	0.46^***	0.02	0.46^***	0.02	0.75^*	0.09	0.75^*	0.09	0.75^*	0.09
Spouse	0.42^***	0.05	0.42^***	0.05	0.42^***	0.05	0.19^***	0.08	0.19^***	0.08	0.20^***	0.08
Child head	1.24	1.48	1.24	1.48	1.25	1.48	1.84		1.84		1.84
Non-relative	0.54^***	0.02	0.54^***	0.02	0.54^***	0.02	0.25^***	0.02	0.25^***	0.02	0.25^***	0.02
Education of household head
No formal education⁵
Primary	2.23^***	0.04	2.23^***	0.04	2.23^***	0.04	2.04^***	0.06	2.04^***	0.06	2.03^***	0.06
Secondary	3.81^***	0.08	3.81^***	0.08	3.79^***	0.08	3.07^***	0.15	3.07^***	0.15	3.05^***	0.15
Female headed household	1.54^***	0.03	1.54^***	0.03	1.54^***	0.03	1.21^***	0.04	1.21^***	0.04	1.21^***	0.04
Age of household head	1.00	0.00	0.99^***	0.00	0.99^***	0.00	0.99^*	0.00	0.99^*	0.00	0.99^*	0.00
Household wealth	1.42^***	0.01	1.42^***	0.01	1.42^***	0.01	1.38^***	0.02	1.38^***	0.02	1.38^***	0.02
Household size	1.02^***	0.00	1.02^***	0.00	1.02^***	0.00	1.02^*	0.01	1.02^*	0.01	1.02^*	0.01
Total # household members under age 15	0.96^***	0.00	0.96^***	0.00	0.96^***	0.00	0.95^***	0.01	0.95^***	0.01	0.95^***	0.01
Total # household members over 64	1.06^***	0.01	1.06^***	0.01	1.06^***	0.01	1.02	0.04	1.02	0.04	1.02	0.04
Rural household	0.74^***	0.01	0.74^***	0.01	0.74^***	0.01	0.55^***	0.03	0.55^***	0.03	0.55^***	0.03
Country dummies (not shown)
Survey Year	1.52^***	0.13	1.55^***	0.13	1.28^*	0.13	1.37^***	0.08	1.37^***	0.08	1.37^***	0.06
Random effects
Level 2 (Province)
Variance intercept	0.81		0.80		0.70		0.82		0.80		0.58
Model fit
Likelihood-ratio test	1200.04^***		1100.04^***		942.04^***		3190.63^***		3111.20^***		1989.05^***
Children orphaned by province (%)	1.08^**	0.03	1.28^*	0.14	1.05^*	0.02	1.07^***	0.01	1.12^**	0.05	1.04^**	0.01
Children orphaned by province (%, Sqrd)			0.99	0.00					1.00	0.00
Household head has no formal education (%)					0.98^**	0.01					0.98^***	0.00
Female headed household (%)					1.00	0.01					1.03^**	0.01
Mean household size					0.99	0.09					1.16	0.12
Level 1 - Individual
Female	0.61^***	0.02	0.606^***	0.02	0.606^***	0.02	1.18^***	0.03	1.18^***	0.03	1.18^***	0.03
Age	1.12^***	0.01	1.12^***	0.01	1.12^***	0.01	1.03^***	0.01	1.03^***	0.01	1.03^***	0.01
Relationship to household head
Parent⁵
Grandparent	1.05	0.06	1.05	0.06	1.05	0.06	1.08	0.05	1.08	0.05	1.08	0.05
Relative	0.57^***	0.03	0.57^***	0.03	0.57^***	0.03	0.55^***	0.03	0.55^***	0.03	0.55^***	0.03
Sibling	0.64^***	0.06	0.64^***	0.06	0.64^***	0.06	0.61	0.06	0.61	0.06	0.61	0.06
Spouse	0.53^*	0.17	0.53^*	0.17	0.53^*	0.17	0.37^***	0.08	0.37^***	0.08	0.37^***	0.08
Child head	1.01	1.30	1.01	1.30	1.01	1.29	0.62	0.31	0.62	0.31	0.62	0.31
Non-relative	0.65^***	0.05	0.65^***	0.05	0.65^***	0.05	0.36^***	0.02	0.36^***	0.02	0.36^***	0.02
Education of household head
No formal education⁵
Primary	1.84^***	0.07	1.84^***	0.07	1.84^***	0.07	1.88^***	0.05	1.88^***	0.05	1.88^***	0.05
Secondary	3.73^***	0.17	3.73^***	0.17	3.73^***	0.17	3.35^***	0.15	3.35^***	0.15	3.35^***	0.15
Female headed household	1.42^***	0.06	1.42^***	0.06	1.42^***	0.06	1.18^***	0.04	1.18^***	0.04	1.18^***	0.04
Age of household head	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.99^***	0.00	0.99^***	0.00	0.99^***	0.00
Household wealth	1.46^***	0.02	1.46^***	0.02	1.46^***	0.02	1.39^***	0.02	1.39^***	0.02	1.39^***	0.02
Household size	1.03^**	0.01	1.03^**	0.01	1.03^**	0.01	1.07^***	0.01	1.07^***	0.01	1.07^***	0.01
Total # household members under age 15	0.96^**	0.01	0.96^**	0.01	0.96^**	0.01	0.91^***	0.01	0.91^***	0.01	0.91^***	0.01
Total # household members over 64	1.07	0.05	1.07	0.05	1.07	0.05	1.06^***	0.04	1.06^***	0.04	1.06^***	0.04
Rural household	0.79^***	0.03	0.79^***	0.03	0.79^***	0.03	0.79^***	0.04	0.79^***	0.04	0.79^***	0.04
Country dummies (not shown)
Survey Year	0.55^***	0.02	0.55^***	0.03	0.55^***	0.04	0.18^***	0.04	0.18^***	0.04	0.18^***	0.03
Random effects
Level 2 (Province) Variance intercept	0.36		0.35		0.31		0.42		0.42		0.33
Model fit
Likelihood-ratio test	392.83^***		347.75^***		195.22^***		817.4^***		817.03^***		430.04^***

Sources: DHS & MICS

N=166,173 non-orphaned children in 125 provinces in 15 countries

N=52,915 non-orphaned children in 84 provinces in 6 countries

N=35,921 non-orphaned children in 45 provinces in 5 countries

⁴

N=74,747 non-orphaned children in 82 provinces in 8 countries

⁵

Reference group

p < .05

^**

p < .01

^***

p < .001