Fig. 1.

Probability of observing a 0–4 serotypes going extinct in 400 stochastic simulations with asymmetric transmission rates, spanning 100 years, as a function of the ADE factor φ. For each run, the transmission rates are distributed as ${\beta }_i={\beta }_0+{\sigma }_{\beta }\cdot \mathcal{N}(0,1)$ with β₀ = 500 and σ_β = 75. Panel (a): probability of observing extinctions of 0–4 serotypes for the 73 runs with CV <0.07, over the said time period, as a function of φ. Panel (b): same as in (a), except that we keep the 150 runs with CV (β)<0.1. Panel (c): same as in (a) and (b), except that the full set of 400 runs is considered. Other parameter values are as in Table A1.