Figure 2. Conceptual model describing how ENSO and seasonal climate govern the wildfire regime.

Included in the model are climate variables found to be important in the previous study [2], including Niño 3.4 (measured over the dry season), dry-season rainfall, and the consistency of the moistening trend in the previous wet season. Black and red arrows represent predicted negative and positive effects, respectively, and together make up our starting, theory-based model. Blue arrows were then added to the framework to saturate it for use in exploratory models produced by Amos’s model specification procedure.