Figure 3. Structural equation models describing relationships among ENSO and seasonal characteristics for the two seasons.

Models include (A) our starting, theory-driven model for the dry season (BCC = 65.6; χ² = 45.3, df = 6, p < 0.001), (B) the “best” exploratory model for the dry season according to BCC values (BCC = 39.7; χ² = 3.7, df = 4, p = 0.44), (C) our starting model for the wet season (BCC = 40.6; χ² = 18.2, df = 5, p = 0.003), and (D) the “best” model for the wet season (BCC = 28.8; χ² = 4.1, df = 4, p = 0.40). Paths are accompanied by numbers, which are standardized partial regression coefficients. The significance of these coefficients is shown with differently weighted lines (dashed = non-significant, thin = p ≤ 0.05, medium = p ≤ 0.01, and thick = p ≤ 0.001). Models use 58 years of climate data collected for the Avon, Park Air Force Range, south-central Florida, USA (1950-2007).