Figure 6.

This figure shows the results of a simulation of 16 trials, where a low offer was replaced by high offer on the 11th trial, which was accepted on the subsequent trial. The upper left panel shows the expected states as a function of trials or time, where the states are defined in Figure 2. The upper right panel shows the corresponding expectations about control in the future, where the dotted lines are expectations during earlier trials and the full lines correspond to expectations during the final trial. Blue corresponds to reject (stay) and green to accept (shift). The lower panels show the time-dependent changes in expected precision, after convergence on each trial (lower left) and deconvolved updates after each iteration of the variational updates (lower right).