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. 2013 Apr 16;28(10):1294–1301. doi: 10.1007/s11606-013-2417-1

Figure 4.

Figure 4.

Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. a Discounted costs and discounted QALYs over 10 years are shown for select portfolios: status quo (black dots); annual HIV screening and 75 % ART utilization (red triangles); or a combination portfolio of annual HIV screening, 75 % ART utilization, 75 % male circumcision coverage within 5 years, 50 % microbicide utilization, and 50 % PrEP utilization (cyan diamonds). b Cumulative probability distributions for the cost-effectiveness of annual HIV screening and 75 % ART utilization versus the status quo (red line); or a combination portfolio of annual HIV screening, 75 % ART utilization, 75 % male circumcision coverage within 5 years, 50 % microbicide utilization, and 50 % PrEP utilization versus screening and ART only (cyan line). The graph shows the probability that the select portfolio has a cost-effectiveness ratio less than the value on the x-axis, given a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations. QALY = quality-adjusted life year; ART = antiretroviral therapy; PrEP = oral pre-exposure prophylaxis.