Table 2.

Climate change impacts that are expected to interact with current threats to ecosystems in Myanmar (the relevant ecoregion in Fig. 2 is indicated in italics within brackets)

Ecosystem	Current threats to ecosystems in Myanmar	Expected climate change impacts
Terrestrial
Lowland tropical forest ecosystems
Wet evergreen forests (extensive in the Taninthayi Division of south Myanmar). High species diversity (Tenasserim south Thailand semi-evergreen forests)	Commercial logging and conversion to oil palm plantations leading to habitat loss and fragmentation throughout Southeast Asia with similar pressures in Myanmar. Severely threatened	Species unable to adapt to warmer conditions due to physiological limitations will be extirpated (Feeley and Silman 2010; Corlett 2011); movements of species will be impeded by fragmented, degraded and cultivated landscapes
Freshwater swamp forests in permanently or seasonally inundated lowlands (Ayeyarwady Delta and the floodplains of the Chindwin and other rivers) (Ayeyarwady freshwater swamp forests)	Extensive clearing throughout mainland Southeast Asia with the largest remaining areas in Myanmar	Sea level rise, cyclones and associated storm surges can be expected to negatively impact these ecosystems
Mixed deciduous forests (Central Dry Zone) (Ayeyarwady Dry Forests)	Subject to intensive commercial logging and represent a highly water stressed environment	Meteorological observations and climate change scenarios indicate highly variable and reduced rainfall patterns in this region causing further water stress
Eastern and Greater Himalayas
Alpine/sub-alpine ecosystems (lying between the tree line at 4000 m and the snow line at 5500 m) (Eastern Himalayan Alpine Shrub and Meadow) Montane evergreen hill forests (Chin hills) and the Northern mountains forest complex (includes gradients over 5000 m). Large contiguous areas, high floristic diversity and endemism (Northern Triangle Sub-tropical forests)	Few existing threats to the ecosystem beyond hunting Shifting cultivation, hunting and timber extraction	In general, alpine plant communities will likely increase in height and cover and decrease in species diversity and evenness in a nonlinear response to global warming (Luo et al. 2004). A 1 °C increase in mean annual temperature will result in a shift in isotherms about 160 m in elevation or 150 km in latitude. Upland species that have narrow altitudinal ranges may suffer from range-shift gaps where they are unable to keep up with advancing climates up mountainsides (Colwell et al. 2008)
Freshwater
Rivers (Ayeyarwady, Chindwin), lakes (Inle), floodplains, flooded grasslands, and wetland ecosystems	Eutrophication, organic pollution, sediment release, acidification, impoundment, urbanization, hydropower development, flood-risk management and invasion by exotic species. Freshwater biodiversity is very poorly documented (Allen et al. 2010)	Climate change is anticipated to alter seasonal flow regimes and the timing, extent and duration of floodinga (TKK and SEA START 2009). Hotter and drier conditions, especially toward the end of the dry season, could result in the drying out of small floodplain water bodies and the contraction of shallow-water zones in lakes such as Inle lake. In seasonally flooded grasslands (Hukawng Valley) a critically endangered habitat, hotter dry seasons and rising CO2 concentrations could facilitate fire and the invasion of woody plants
Marine
Coastal ecosystems: mangroves, coral reefs (Myanmar coastal mangroves) Coral reefs, Myeik Archipelago of the Tanintharyi Region	Pollution, harvesting and coastal development. Coral reefs are not fully surveyed, protected or monitored	In the nearer term, sea level rise, increased water temperatures will accelerate beach and coastal erosion and cause degradation of estuarine communities, mangroves and coral reefs with ultimate impacts on water supply and fisheries productivity (Grantham et al. 2011). Sea level rise is expected to impact globally threatened species of migratory shorebirds through the loss of intertidal mud flats (Buckton and Safford 2004; Tordoff et al. 2005). Breeding colonies of seabirds and turtles may be particularly vulnerable to sea level rise (Duffy 2011) Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in coral calcification and affects coral reefs which provide habitat for about a quarter of all marine species and are the most diverse among marine ecosystems (Roberts et al. 2002)

^aPredictions are confounded by modeling limitations and natural hydrological variability, and the potential impacts of hydropower dams