Table 1. Comparison between 2009–2010 observed acute diarrhea incidence and the expected incidence estimated from previous years (2004–2009) in France.

Differences with 2009–2010 incidence		low incidence	expected incidence	high incidence
Period between weeks 44 and 52	Incidence (/100 000)	−209	−608	−1,104
	Number of cases	−134,124	−391,297	−710,282
	% of increase or decrease	−9%	−24%	−36%
Period between weeks 53 and 18	Incidence (/100 000)	+2,019	+1, 501	+935
	Number of cases	+1,298,442	+965,737	+601,107
	% of increase or decrease	+62%	+40%	+22%
Entire studied period between weeks 44 and 18	Incidence (/100 000)	+1,810	+893	−170
	Number of cases	+1,164,318	+574,440	−109,175
	% of increase or decrease	+34%	+14.1%	−2%

Low and high incidence scenarios are given by the bound of bootstrapped 95% confidence interval. The studied period is divided in two sub-periods, before and after the week 52 when the observed and expected incidences intersect.