Table 5. Effectiveness of vaccination scenarios.

Baselinea	Targeted Populations	Coverage	Doses (in Millions)	Incidence (in Millions per Year)		Mortality (in Thousands per Year)		Infections Averted (per Dose)		Deaths Averted (per 1,000 Doses)
2	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	15%	6.0	11.5	[10.6–12.4]	22.1	[14.3–40.9]	0.81	[0.75–0.88]	2.46	[1.60–4.30]
2	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	30%	7.4	9.5	[8.6–10.5]	18.8	[11.8–35.0]	0.93	[0.86–1.00]	2.45	[1.61–4.30]
4	S3: 50–64 y (LR)	15%	8.3	13.2	[12.4–14.1]	21.8	[14.3–39.4]	0.38	[0.33–0.44]	1.83	[1.19–3.23]
4	S1: 0.5–4 y (LR)	15%	8.4	13.1	[12.2–13.9]	21.6	[14.2–39.2]	0.40	[0.35–0.45]	1.83	[1.18–3.20]
4	S5: S1+S3	15%	8.7	12.8	[11.9–13.6]	21.1	[13.8–38.3]	0.42	[0.37–0.47]	1.82	[1.18–3.20]
4	S1: 0.5–4 y (LR)	30%	8.8	12.6	[11.8–13.5]	21.0	[13.8–38.1]	0.43	[0.38–0.48]	1.82	[1.18–3.18]
4	S3: 50–64 y (LR)	30%	9.0	12.7	[11.9–13.5]	20.9	[13.6–37.6]	0.42	[0.36–0.47]	1.79	[1.17–3.18]
2	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	50%	9.1	7.4	[6.4–8.5]	15.2	[9.4–28.4]	0.98	[0.90–1.07]	2.41	[1.61–4.12]
4	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	15%	9.2	11.3	[10.4–12.2]	19.0	[12.4–35.0]	0.55	[0.51–0.60]	1.96	[1.27–3.42]
4	S1: 0.5–4 y (LR)	50%	9.3	12.1	[11.2–12.9]	20.2	[13.2–36.6]	0.47	[0.42–0.52]	1.82	[1.17–3.19]
4	S4: S1+S2	15%	9.6	10.9	[10.0–11.8]	18.3	[11.9–33.8]	0.58	[0.53–0.63]	1.95	[1.27–3.41]
4	S5: S1+S3	30%	9.8	11.8	[11.0–12.6]	19.5	[12.8–35.5]	0.47	[0.42–0.52]	1.78	[1.16–3.13]
4	S1: 0.5–4 y (LR)	70%	9.8	11.5	[10.7–12.4]	19.3	[12.7–34.9]	0.50	[0.45–0.55]	1.81	[1.17–3.19]
4	S3: 50–64 y (LR)	50%	9.9	11.9	[11.2–12.7]	19.7	[12.8–35.3]	0.45	[0.40–0.51]	1.75	[1.14–3.12]
4	S6: S1+S2+S3	15%	10.0	10.6	[9.7–11.4]	17.8	[11.5–32.8]	0.58	[0.54–0.63]	1.92	[1.25–3.34]
4	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	30%	10.5	9.3	[8.4–10.2]	16.0	[10.1–30.1]	0.67	[0.62–0.73]	1.99	[1.31–3.46]
4	S3: 50–64 y (LR)	70%	10.8	11.2	[10.5–11.9]	18.5	[12.0–33.1]	0.48	[0.42–0.54]	1.72	[1.12–3.07]
2	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	70%	10.9	5.8	[4.8–6.8]	12.2	[7.4–23.3]	0.97	[0.89–1.06]	2.27	[1.53–3.93]
4	S5: S1+S3	50%	11.2	10.5	[9.8–11.2]	17.5	[11.5–31.7]	0.53	[0.48–0.58]	1.74	[1.14–3.07]
4	S4: S1+S2	30%	11.3	8.6	[7.6–9.5]	14.9	[9.4–28.0]	0.69	[0.64–0.75]	1.95	[1.29–3.40]
4	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	50%	12.3	7.3	[6.2–8.3]	12.9	[8.0–24.3]	0.74	[0.68–0.80]	1.96	[1.31–3.40]
4	S6: S1+S2+S3	30%	12.4	7.8	[6.9–8.6]	13.5	[8.4–25.8]	0.70	[0.65–0.75]	1.90	[1.25–3.30]
4	S5: S1+S3	70%	12.6	9.3	[8.7–10.0]	15.5	[10.1–28.4]	0.56	[0.51–0.62]	1.7	[1.11–3.01]
4	S4: S1+S2	50%	13.6	6.2	[5.2–7.1]	11.2	[6.9–21.2]	0.75	[0.69–0.82]	1.91	[1.26–3.32]
4	S2: 5–16 y (LR)	70%	14.1	5.6	[4.6–6.6]	10.4	[6.3–20.0]	0.76	[0.70–0.83]	1.90	[1.27–3.26]
4	S6: S1+S2+S3	50%	15.6	4.7	[3.9–5.5]	8.8	[5.2–17.2]	0.75	[0.69–0.81]	1.83	[1.21–3.16]
4	S4: S1+S2	70%	15.9	4.4	[3.4–5.3]	8.3	[4.8–16.1]	0.76	[0.69–0.82]	1.82	[1.20–3.16]
4	S6: S1+S2+S3	70%	18.7	2.7	[2.0–3.4]	5.3	[2.9–10.9]	0.73	[0.68–0.79]	1.70	[1.13–2.98]

Each scenario increments on a baseline strategy (numbers refer to Table S7 in Text S1). Numbers inside brackets indicate 95% credible intervals.

^aBaseline 2 refers to vaccination as it occurred before 2000 (risk-based only), and baseline 4 is the post-2000 policy (high-risk group and elderly adult group). For more detail see Text S1.