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. 2013 Oct 15;11(10):e1001682. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682

Table 1. Likely biological responses to changes in ocean biogeochemistry.

Temperature pH Oxygen Productivity
Body size and growth Due to temperature control over metabolism [60], everything else being equal, warming should reduce growth and body size [31],[61],[62]. In some regions, warming of extreme cold places could enhance individual body growth [63]. Acidification may reduce skeletogenesis [33],[64] and increase metabolic costs of calcification [32], although some taxa are resistant [65] and some plants may benefit [66] (but see [67]). CO2 can increase in the blood (i.e., hypercapnia) reducing growth [33],[68][70]. Hypoxia (reduced oxygen) should reduce growth and body size [71][73]. Oxygen concentration also exerts a strong control over calcification rates of corals [74]. Growth and body size should decline with lowered productivity [19],[31],[75][79]. Changes in life-history strategies of abyssal macrofauna may be related to changes in surface productivity [80].
Survival and abundance In some taxa, thermal tolerance thresholds could be surpassed by warming leading to excessive mortality [3],[81][83], especially if in interacting with other stressors [29],[84]. Warming thus reduces abundance [83],[85][87] and may enhance diseases [88][93]. Acidification increases mortality in selected adult [94] and juvenile [95][98] marine invertebrates [33] and plants [67]. Abundance can decline among producer species [67] (but see [66],[99]). Hypoxia causes mortality in most large eukaryote species [23],[71],[84],[100], and anoxia (complete lack of oxygen) could cause extinction in macro- and megafauna [71],[101][104]. Hypoxia may enhance dominance by some taxa that are hypoxia tolerant [103],[105],[106] or that are released from ecological interactions [16],[71],[107],[108]. Mortality of benthic invertebrates is generally higher with reductions in food supply [83]. Reduced productivity could reduce abundance [75],[83],[108][114] and lead to dominance shifts from large to small taxa [115].
Range and distribution Warming could cause range shifts poleward and to deeper waters [116][119], which in turn could affect the strength of ecological interactions [120], gene flow, and rates of evolution [121]. Warming also reduces habitat suitability for species that do not shift ranges [122]. Reduced calcium carbonate saturation could prevent calcification and growth and thus lead to the disappearance of calcifying species from certain shallow [3],[123] and deep-sea [124] areas. Some taxa may disappear from hypoxic waters [24],[71],[103],[125][129] but others may appear and thrive [24],[125],[128]. Some evidence exists for increased endemism among benthic foraminifera in core regions of oxygen minimum zones [130]. Certain species are unlikely to maintain their distribution in food-limited areas of the seafloor [131].
Species richness Theory suggests a positive relation between richness and temperature [132][135], which is confirmed in several marine studies [54],[117],[136],[137]; although some regions and/or taxa fail to show a relationship [138]. Acidification will likely lead to loss of species [94],[139],[140]. Diversity declines as oxygen declines for protists [16],[23],[101], meiofauna [16], macrofauna, and megafauna [23],[24],[71],[101],[125]. Richness shows a unimodal [83],[112],[114],[131] or no [137],[138] relationship with proxies of food supply. Productivity seasonality may negatively affect diversity [141],[142]. Eutrophication causes diversity decline via hypoxia and anoxia [16].
Functioning Ecosystem malfunctioning could be extensive if key-stone species are affected [3],[55],[56],[120],[122]. Trophic cascades (e.g., rise of jellyfish) could also occur [105]. Acidification can affect nutrient cycling [140],[143], while reduced calcification can reduce sinking rates and carbon export fluxes to the seafloor via less mineral ballast [144]. Carbon cycling could shift from metazoans to benthic foraminifera [145] and microbiota [20],[145] in suboxic and anoxic zones. Hypoxia can reduce colonization, recovery, and resilience [146]. Reduced food supply can reduce carbon cycling [19],[147],[148], modify food-web structures [114], and cause shifts from macrofaunal- to microbial-dominated nutrient cycling [75],[149],[150].