Table 2. Parameter estimates from selected best Bayesian hierarchical models for long-term occupancy dynamics (historical data), with covariates influencing occupancy (zero not included in credible intervals) in bold.

Parameter	Description	Mean	Standard deviation	Credible interval (2.5pc)	Credible interval (97.5pc)
ψ [1]	Overall occupancy for time-period 1	0.175	0.049	0.089	0.28
ψ [2]	Overall occupancy for time-period 2	0.452	0.074	0.311	0.60
ψ [3]	Overall occupancy for time-period 3	0.228	0.062	0.119	0.36
φ [1]	Persistence probability from time-period 1 to time-period 2	0.558	0.156	0.250	0.84
φ [2]	Persistence probability from time-period 2 to time-period 3	0.150	0.078	0.0329	0.33
γ [1]	Colonization probability from time-period 1 to time-period 2	0.429	0.082	0.274	0.59
γ [2]	Colonization probability from time-period 2 to time-period 3	0.292	0.090	0.132	0.48
p [1]	Detection probability for time-period 1	0.259	0.089	0.106	0.45
p [2]	Detection probability for time-period 2	0.143	0.046	0.066	0.25
p [3]	Detection probability for time-period 3	0.231	0.082	0.094	0.41
alpha	Intercept of global occupancy model	–4.061	1.73	–7.91	–1.14
b [2]	Effect of partially exposed meadow on occupancy relative to exposed meadow	2.11	1.59	–0.79	5.66
b [3]	Effect of sheltered meadow on occupancy relative to exposed meadow	4.256	1.92	0.745	8.23
c [2]	Effect of depth (high) on occupancy, relative to depth (low)	0.536	1.26	–1.81	3.13
τ	Precision term for group random effects	171.3	387.6	0.163	1248

Note: b [1] and c [1] were assigned ‘zero’ to mark a clear reference for respective covariates.