Table 1.

Comparison of different dating scenarios of MTBC evolution.

Dating scenario		MTBC-70	MTBC-185	MTBC-10	MTBC-65
Rationale		Emergence of MTBC with human mtDNA haplogroup L3	Emergence of MTBC with anatomically modern humans	Emergence of MTBC during Neolithic Demographic Transition	Emergence of Out-of-Africa MTBC with human mtDNA haplogroup M
Dates inferred from models (in kya) *
most recent common ancestor of MTBC		73 (50–96)	198 (170–229)	11 (9–14)	67 (44–91)
coalescent time for Lineage 5/6		70 (48–88)**	184 (164–203)**	10 (8–12)**	61 (40–81)
coalescent time for Lineage 1		67 (46–88)	183 (160–207)	10 (8–12)	62 (42–82)**
coalescent time for Lineage 2/3/4		46 (31–61)	126 (104–148)	7 (6–10)	41 (26–55)
period of maximum logistic growth		4–7	31–34	1	4–7
Substitution rate (SNPs/site/ky) ***		3.37E-4 (2.38E-4-4.65E-4)	1.23E-4 (1.04E-4-1.46E-4)	2.17E-3 (1.71E-3-2.68E-3)	3.78E-4 (2.62E-4-5.36E-4)

^*dates are shown as the median value and 95% highest posterior density interval predicted in the corresponding Bayesian analysis

^**value provided as prior input in Bayesian analysis

^***BEAST predicted rate of SNP accumulation (per polymorphic position and thousand year). In the main text we use the estimated genomic substitution rate (per position and year) for comparative purposes with published estimations from other bacterial species.