Fig. 1.

Comparison of median posterior parameter estimates for different values of the growth rate r (A) and predictive error for r = 3.7 (B) for the estimation method used by Perretti et al. (1) and our alternative estimation method. For B, we additionally show the predictive error of the true parameters. Predictive error is measured by standardized root mean-square error (RMSE) (1). The shaded area depicts the 95% confidence interval. Note that biased, but stable r values estimated by Perretti et al. have larger short-term but smaller long-term error than the true values.