. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Oct 21.

Published in final edited form as: CA Cancer J Clin. 2012 Mar 14;62(3):147–172. doi: 10.3322/caac.21139

Table 4.

Evidence for managing women aged 30–65 with HPV positive, cytology negative or HPV negative, ASCUS cytology results

PATIENTS/POPULATION	Women aged 30–65 with HPV positive, cytology negative cotesting results
INTERVENTION	No treatment/referral within specified time frame
COMPARATOR	2-year risk of CIN 3 observed in ALTS study (8–10%)
OUTCOME	MAIN RESULT	NUMBER OF STUDIES	QUALITY OF EVIDENCE	COMMENTS
CIN3+ (absolute risk)
1 year	<1–4.1%	4^93,97–99	Moderate-high	Observational studies, but consistency of results across multiple designs, settings
3 years	2.2–7.0%	3^74,100,101	Moderate	Large observational studies, consistent results
5 years	5.9–9.3%	2^74,100	Moderate	Large observational studies, consistent results
10+ years	16.0–21.2%	2^100,102	Moderate	Observational studies, consistent results
PATIENTS/POPULATION	Women aged 21–65 with HPV negative ASCUS results
INTERVENTION	No treatment/referral within specified time frame
COMPARATOR	No treatment/referral for ^women with HPV negative, cytology negative (NILM) results
OUTCOME	MAIN RESULT	NUMBER OF STUDIES	QUALITY OF EVIDENCE	COMMENTS
CIN3+ (absolute risk)
Enrollment	ASCUS: 0.28% NILM:0.30%	2^93,103	Moderate-Low	Large observational studies, consistency of results, indirect comparison
2 years (cumulative)	ASCUS: 1.4–1.9%	2^104,105	Moderate	Large observational studies, consistent results
5 years (cumulative)	ASCUS: 0.54% NILM: 0.16%	1⁷⁴	Moderate	Large observational study, direct comparison