Table 3. Year of HIV elimination (incidence <1/1,000 person-years) under universal testing and immediate ART for all HIV-infected patients (UTT) and number of life-years saved through UTT compared to the baseline of no UTT.
| Model | Sub-Model | Year of Eliminationa (Range) | Life-Years Saved per ART Treatment Year in 2050 (Range) |
| Model A | 2019 (2018; 2021) | 5.7 (4.7; 7.2) | |
| + Age structure (B1) | 2019 (2018; 2020) | 3.8 (3.1; 4.3) | |
| + Heterogeneity in HIV transmission by disease stageb (B2) | 2053 (2048; >2060) | 2.6 (2.1; 3.3) | |
| Model B (B1 and B2 combined) | 2053 (2042; >2060) | 3.0 (2.6; 3.5) | |
| + Sexual network (C1) | >2060 (2058; >2060) | 2.6 (1.8; 2.9) | |
| + Background prevention interventions (C2) | 2042 (2037; 2050) | 2.8 (2.1; 3.2) | |
| + Up-to-date ART assumptions (C3) | >2060 (2054; >2060) | 2.9 (2.5; 3.1) | |
| Model C (C1, C2, and C3 combined) | 2032 (2030; 2041) | 1.8 (1.1; 2.0) | |
| Model D (STDSIM) | 2029 (2027; 2034) | 1.7 (1.2; 2.6) | |
| Model D baseline (ART at CD4 count ≤350 cells/µl) | 2041 (2037; 2047) | N/A |
UTT is scaled up linearly, starting in 2012 and reaching 90% coverage in 2019. Ranges reflect the variation in outcome due to the uncertainty in the parameter values that were quantified based on fitting the model to the data.
a
Incidence below 1/1,000 person-years.
b
We assumed four different stages: acute, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and AIDS.
N/A, not applicable.