Table 3.
Predictive Models of 1- and 3-Year Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Breast, Lung, Colorectal, or Prostate Cancer From 1998 to 2002 (N = 211,084)
| Odds Ratioa (95% CI) for Mortality Measure |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Year Mortality |
3-Year Mortality |
|||||
| Final Model Variables | All-Cause | Cancer-Specific | Other-Cause | All-Cause | Cancer-Specific | Other-Cause |
| NCI cancer center | 0.75 (0.71-0.79) | 0.75 (0.70-0.79) | 0.74 (0.67-0.82) | 0.88 (0.84-0.92) | 0.91 (0.86-0.96) | 0.80 (0.74-0.87) |
| attendanceb | ||||||
| Stage at diagnosis | ||||||
| 1 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| 2 | 1.47 (1.39-1.55) | 1.61 (1.49-1.74) | 1.14 (1.05-1.23) | 1.52 (1.45-1.58) | 1.76 (1.67-1.86) | 1.15 (1.08-1.21) |
| 3 | 3.73 (3.56-3.91) | 5.53 (5.21-5.87) | 1.67 (1.54-1.80) | 3.52 (3.38-3.66) | 5.22 (4.98-5.48) | 1.56 (1.47-1.66) |
| 4 | 10.87 (10.35-11.41) | 17.60 (16.57-18.70) | 2.44 (2.25-2.66) | 9.49 (9.09-9.89) | 15.80 (15.03-16.61) | 2.04 (1.90-2.19) |
| Unknown | 2.29 (2.18-2.41) | 3.04 (2.85-3.23) | 1.46 (1.36-1.58) | 2.10 (2.01-2.18) | 2.63 (2.50-2.77) | 1.41 (1.33-1.50) |
| Predominance of | 1.27 (1.24-1.31) | 1.26 (1.22-1.30) | 1.28 (1.23-1.34) | 1.24 (1.21-1.27) | 1.22 (1.19-1.26) | 1.25 (1.21-1.30) |
| primary carec | ||||||
| Race/ethnicity | ||||||
| Caucasian | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| African American | 1.16 (1.10-1.22) | 1.13 (1.07-1.19) | 1.24 (1.14-1.34) | 1.22 (1.17-1.28) | 1.23 (1.17-1.30) | 1.22 (1.14-1.30) |
| Charlson | ||||||
| comorbidity index | ||||||
| 0 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| 1-2 | 1.49 (1.44-1.53) | 1.37 (1.32-1.42) | 1.85 (1.68-2.00) | 1.55 (1.51-1.59) | 1.41 (1.36-1.45) | 1.86 (1.78-1.93) |
| 3-4 | 2.12 (2.04-2.21) | 1.78 (1.70-1.87) | 3.07 (2.88-3.27) | 2.23 (2.15-2.31) | 1.81 (1.73-1.89) | 3.04 (2.89-3.20) |
| 5+ | 3.26 (3.08-3.45) | 2.29 (2.14-2.46) | 5.65 (5.24-6.10) | 3.57 (3.38-3.76) | 2.42 (2.26-2.58) | 5.56 (5.21-5.94) |
Note: NCI = National Cancer Institute; CI = confidence interval; SEER = Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.
a
Odds ratios were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, rurality, cancer, SEER registry of residence at diagnosis, per capita oncologist supply for hospital referral region, and median income for ZIP code of residence.
b
Attendance is defined as two or more claim days in the first 12 months after diagnosis.
c
Predominant primary care was defined as having primary care visits ≥ specialist visits in the 6 months prior to diagnosis.