Table 5.

Impact on premature (U75) CHD mortality count of an improvement in primary care or a decrease in population burden to the median from the upper or lower quartile as appropriate, given the current model

Explanatory variable	Description of change	Effect of an improvement in primary care or a decrease in population burden on percentage change in premature mortality (CI)
Percentage of White patients	Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 5.2% in percentage of white patients	−4.16% (−6.24% to −1.56%)
Deprivation score	Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 10.8 units on scale	−18.36% (−25.92% to −11.88%)
Prevalence of diabetes in 2006/2007	Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 0.6% in diabetes prevalence	−6.84% (−12.48% to −1.68%)
Percentage over 65	Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 2.3% in percentage over 65	−13.57% (−18.63% to −8.74%)
Percentage of male patients	Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 1.0% in percentage of male patients	−6.7% (−10.3% to −3.8%)
Number of GPs/1000 patients	Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 0.8 GPs per 1000 patients	15.76% (−9.20% to 49.52%)
Hypertension detection in 2006/2007	Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 2.3% in detection	−5.06% (−11.27% to 1.61%)
Percentage of patients offered smoking cessation advice (SM02)	Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 2.06% offered advice	0.41% (−1.44% to 2.27%)
Percentage of serum cholesterol (CHD08)	Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 4.0% in achieving serum cholesterol target	−3.6% (−7.6% to 0.0%)
Percentage of aspirin (CHD09)	Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 2.0% in aspirin treatment	0.4% (−3.6% to 4.4%)
Percentage of patients with recalled perception of being able to see preferred GP	Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 8.0% in patients recalling being able to see preferred GP	−4.8% (−8.8% to −0.00%)

CHD, coronary heart disease; GP, general practitioner.