Table 3.

Stepwise logistic regression models for the numbers of annual recolonization and extinction events

	Recolonization events			Extinction events
Variable	Coeff	t	P	Coeff	t	P
Fraction occupied	−9.86	−0.07	0.94	468	3.03	0.009
Log July precipitation	58.0	3.02	0.009	−47.8	−2.2	0.045
R2	0.38			0.59

The independent variables include monthly average temperatures from April to August, the logarithm of monthly precipitation in June, July, and August, and the fraction of occupied habitat patches out of all patches in the previous year (as in Fig. 6C). The fraction of occupied patches was included in the model, whereas of the remaining variables only rainfall in July had a significant effect.