Table 1.
Preferred ERR and EAR models (per Sv) for estimating site-specific solid cancer incidence. Estimated parameters with 95% confidence intervals (CI)
| Cancer site | ERR modela | EAR modela | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β males | β females | γ | η | β males | β females | γ | η | |
| Oral Cavity | 0.23 (<0-0.66) | 0.53 (0.13-1.24) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 0.44 (0.08-1.1) | 0.29 (0.06-0.66) | −0.41 | 0.5 |
| Esophagus | 0.51 (<0-1.13) | 0.82 (<0-3.1) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 0.88 (0.11-2.1) | 0.14 (<0-0.63) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Stomach | 0.21 (0.11-0.4) | 0.48 (0.31-0.73) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 4.9 (2.7-8.9) | 4.9 (3.2-7.3) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Colon | 0.63 (0.37-1.1) | 0.43 (0.19-0.96) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 3.2 (1.8-5.6) | 1.6 (0.80-3.2) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Rectum | 0.12 (<0-0.38) | 0.12 (<0-0.38) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 0.34 (0.09-1.1) | 0.34 (0.09-1.1) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Gallbladder | −0.018 (<0-0.29) | −0.018 (<0-0.29) | −0.3 | −1.4 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pancreas | 0.36 (<0-0.88) | 0.36 (<0-0.88) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 0.49 (0.09-1.1) | 0.49 (0.09-1.1) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Liver | 0.32 (0.16-0.64) | 0.32 (0.10-1.0) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 2.2 (0.9-5.3) | 1.0 (0.40-2.5) | −0.41 | 4.1 |
| Lung | 0.32 (0.15-0.70) | 1.4 (0.94-2.1) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 2.3 (1.1-5.0) | 3.4 (2.3-4.9) | −0.41 | 5.2 |
| Breast | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 10 (7.0-14.2) | −0.50 | 3.5, 1.0a |
| Ovary | NA | 0.38 (0.10-1.4) | −0.3 | −1.4 | NA | 0.70 (0.2-2.1) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Uterus | NA | 0.055 (<0-0.22) | −0.3 | −1.4 | NA | 1.2 (<0-2.6) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Prostate | 0.12 (<0 – 0.69) | NA | −0.3 | −1.4 | 0.11 (<0-1.0) | NA | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Bladder | 0.50 (0.18-1.4) | 1.65 (0.69-4.0) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 1.2 (0.4-3.7) | 0.75 (0.3-1.7) | −0.41 | 6.0 |
| Kidney | 0.34 (<0-1.0) | 0.34 (<0-1.0) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 0.31 (0.08-0.68) | 0.31 (0.08-0.68) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
| Brain/CNS | 0.71 (0.26-1.34) | 0.24 (0.09-0.47) | −0.3 | −1.4 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Thyroid | 0.53 (0.14-2) | 1.05 (0.28-3.9) | −0.83 | 0 | N.A | NA | NA | NA |
| Remainder | 0.87 (0.45-1.69) | 0.80 (0.33-1.93) | −0.3 | −1.4 | 2.73 (1.55-4.82) | 1.06 (0.49-2.28) | −0.41 | 2.8 |
|
| ||||||||
| Leukemiab | β males | β females | γ | δ | ϕ | θ | ||
|
|
||||||||
| ERR model | 1.1 (0.1-2.6) | 1.2 (0.1-2.9) | −0.4 (−0.78-0) | −0.48 (−1.1-0.2) | 0.42 (0-0.96) | 0.87 (0.16-15) | ||
| EAR model | 1.62(0.1-3.6) | 0.93 (0.1-2.0) | 0.29 (0-0.62) | 0.0 | 0.56 (0.31-0.85) | 0.88 (0.16-15) | ||
The form of model for solid cancers is ERR or EAR = βs D exp (γ e*)(a*)η, where D is dose in Gy, e is age at exposure (years), e* is (e-30)/10 for e<30, and zero for e≥ 30, a is attained age (years) and a* is (a/60). γ represents per-decade increase in age at exposure over the range 0-30 years. For breast cancer e* is (e-25)/10 for all e, and a* is (a/50), and η is 3.5 for a ≤ 50 and 1.0 elsewhere. The uncertainty in the β coefficient was represented by lognormal probability distributions for all original BEIR VII cancers other than prostate and uterus for which normal distributions were used. For the additional cancer types, other than central nervous system (CNS), the profiles of β coefficient have been directly used to define the cumulative distribution functions. For CNS, the profile was approximated by a lognormal distribution.
The form of model for leukemia is ERR or EAR = βS D (1+θ D) exp[γ e*+δ ln(t/25) + ϕ e* ln(t/25)], where D is dose in Gy, e is age at exposure (years), e* is (e-30)/10 for e<30, and zero for e≥ 30, and t is the time since exposure (years). The quadratic model is applied for acute exposures to low LET radiation (photons and electrons of any energy), while for chronic exposures the quadratic term is dropped (θ = 0) and only the linear term is kept. Propagation of uncertainties for leukemia models is performed using the “delta method” analytical approach (5); thus, no probability distribution functions for have been defined for the parameters of the leukemia model.
NA – not applicable.