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. 2013 Nov 5;7:711. doi: 10.3389/fnhum.2013.00711

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Copyright © 2013 Manohar and Husain.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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Bayesian updating of expectations. What information is obtained in the first two acquisitions? Heatmaps on the left of each panel illustrate the participant's estimated distribution of probability and stake. From this we calculate the estimated distribution of EVs and Risks Equations (6) and (7). Far left: the priors give a relatively flat distribution for EV and risk. First column: after the first acquisition, either a probability or stake is seen, narrowing the distribution in that dimension, and altering the density of EV and risk. Second column: after the first acquisition, the participant shifts attention to the other value in the same option, and his estimate of EV and risk improves again. As more information is accrued by fixations, the distributions become more peaked.