Table 4. Regression Models Predicting Short- and Long-Term Treatment Outcomes.

	Model 1		Model 2
	Success at treatment discharge (N=24,988)		No. of arrests 12 months post-intake (N=25,297)
	Point Estimate	Odds Ratio	Point Estimate
Offender-level factors
On parole at intake (vs. probation)	-0.466***	0.628	0.233***
Age at intake (per year above mean age of sample)	0.011***	1.011	-0.012***
Male (vs. female)	0.002	1.002	0.120***
White race/ethnicity (vs. all other race/ethnicity)	0.129***	1.138	0.025**
Education level at intake (per year of education above mean education level of sample)	0.039***	1.039	0.0006
Employed at intake (vs. not employed)	0.165***	1.179	-0.045***
Social support at intake (vs. no social support)	0.323***	1.386	-0.022
Homeless at intake (vs. not homeless)	-0.034	0.967	-0.009
Mentally ill at intake (vs. not mentally ill)	-0.035	0.932	0.032*
County size very small (vs. large)	-0.257**	0.668	-0.060
County size small (vs. large)	0.103*	0.958	0.072**
County size medium (vs. large)	0.007	0.870	0.084***
Primary drug is methamphetamine (vs. all other drug types)	0.184***	1.203	-0.024(p=.06)
Used primary drug-30 days before intake (vs. did not use)	-0.712***	0.491	0.077***
Number prior drug treatments (per prior treatment)	0.008*	1.008	0.005
Number arrests - 12 months before intake (per arrest)	-0.040***	0.960	0.171***
Number of arrests – lifetime (per arrest)	-0.003**	0.997	0.008***
Treatment-level factors
Treatment setting is residential (vs. outpatient)	1.059***	2.882	-0.085**
Number days in treatment (per day)	0.008***	1.008	-0.001***
Interaction effects
Treatment setting is residential × parolee	0.215**	1.239	-0.107
Number days in treatment × parolee (per day)	0.0002	1.000	-0.0006*
Successful at treatment discharge	na	na	-0.319***

^*p<0.05

^**p<0.01

^***p<0.001