Figure 3. Outcome uncertainty for A) total and B) female mortality in Grizzly Bear (U. arctos horribilis) Population Units (“population units”) in British Columbia, Canada, 2007–2011 (see SI for additional periods).

Black curve is a Michaelis-Menten curve fitted by maximum likelihood, assuming a negative binomial error distribution. Red dashed line indicates a 1∶1 relationship; solid red dots above this line signal population unit-level overmortality events. Dark and light grey-shaded regions encompass the 50% and 80% prediction intervals, respectively (smoothed for visual purposes). Inset histograms show the distribution of GBPU-level percent difference between known mortalities and mortality targets (conflated with limits under mortality management policy); red bars to the right of red dashed lines indicate overmortality events.